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icon for A Groenlândia votará pela independência em 2026?
Política·Trump

A Groenlândia votará pela independência em 2026?

icon for A Groenlândia votará pela independência em 2026?
Política·Trump

A Groenlândia votará pela independência em 2026?

Sim

4% chance
Polymarket

$49,001 Vol.

Sim

4% chance
Polymarket

$49,001 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent political shifts in Greenland have reinforced the status quo with Denmark, driving trader consensus against an independence referendum in 2026. The March 2025 election elevated the Denmark-oriented Demokraatit party to lead a coalition that prioritizes gradual self-determination over immediate separation, sidelining rapid independence advocates. External pressure from U.S. security demands prompted a September 2026 trilateral agreement expanding American military access while explicitly affirming Greenland’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within the Danish realm. This arrangement, set for formal signing at the UN General Assembly, addresses Arctic stability concerns without altering constitutional ties. A scheduled independence commission report due late in 2026 faces limited political momentum amid economic reliance on Danish support and security considerations. Late developments such as coalition fractures or resource revenue surges could still prompt parliamentary action on a vote.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$49,001
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jan 12, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent political shifts in Greenland have reinforced the status quo with Denmark, driving trader consensus against an independence referendum in 2026. The March 2025 election elevated the Denmark-oriented Demokraatit party to lead a coalition that prioritizes gradual self-determination over immediate separation, sidelining rapid independence advocates. External pressure from U.S. security demands prompted a September 2026 trilateral agreement expanding American military access while explicitly affirming Greenland’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within the Danish realm. This arrangement, set for formal signing at the UN General Assembly, addresses Arctic stability concerns without altering constitutional ties. A scheduled independence commission report due late in 2026 faces limited political momentum amid economic reliance on Danish support and security considerations. Late developments such as coalition fractures or resource revenue surges could still prompt parliamentary action on a vote.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Greenland holds an independence referendum and a majority of voters in the referendum vote for independence by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A referendum to join a country other than Denmark will be considered to be a referendum for independence. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of Greenland and/or Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$49,001
Data de Término
1 jan 2027
Mercado Aberto
Jan 12, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"A Groenlândia votará pela independência em 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "A Groenlândia votará pela independência em 2026?" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 4¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 4% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "A Groenlândia votará pela independência em 2026?" has generated $49K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 12, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "A Groenlândia votará pela independência em 2026?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "A Groenlândia votará pela independência em 2026?" is "A Groenlândia votará pela independência em 2026?" at just 4%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "A Groenlândia votará pela independência em 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.