Max Verstappen's long-term Red Bull contract through 2028, backed by recent reports of a major pay raise and potential extension offer to 2029 that would remove performance exit clauses, underpins trader confidence he will not retire in 2026. Early-season criticism of the 2026 power-unit regulations and a candid March admission that retirement was under consideration after a difficult start have faded amid ongoing negotiations and Red Bull's push to retain their four-time champion. At age 28, with a proven record of extracting maximum results even in challenging machinery, Verstappen's recent Monaco pace before a start-line issue further signals he remains motivated to compete for wins rather than step away. The 89.6% implied probability for "No" reflects the market's assessment that contractual incentives, team commitment, and his competitive profile make outright retirement unlikely despite regulatory headwinds.