Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges, with Brent crude near $100 per barrel, have prompted downward revisions to 2026 global GDP forecasts from institutions like the World Bank (2.5%) and UN (2.6%), while the IMF holds at 3.0%. These shocks have elevated inflation risks and tempered activity in energy-importing economies, though AI-driven tech momentum and policy buffers have supported resilience in some regions. With market-implied odds tightly clustered at 3.1% (29.1%) and 3.0% (26.0%), traders appear to weigh the conflict's downside against offsetting factors like favorable terms-of-trade for exporters and subdued broader disinflation progress. Key near-term catalysts include any de-escalation signals or further oil volatility ahead of year-end data releases that could shift the narrow consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено3,1% 29.1%
3,0% 28.4%
≤2,9% 16.0%
3,2% 12.5%
$36,277 Объем
$36,277 Объем
14 янв. 2027 г.
≤2,9%
16%
3,0%
28%
3,1%
29%
3,2%
13%
3,3%
5%
3,4%
4%
3,5%
2%
3,6%
3%
3,7%+
4%
3,1% 29.1%
3,0% 28.4%
≤2,9% 16.0%
3,2% 12.5%
$36,277 Объем
$36,277 Объем
14 янв. 2027 г.
≤2,9%
$6,342 Объем
16%
3,0%
$5,429 Объем
28%
3,1%
$7,793 Объем
29%
3,2%
$2,451 Объем
13%
3,3%
$4,059 Объем
5%
3,4%
$4,568 Объем
4%
3,5%
$3,612 Объем
2%
3,6%
$939 Объем
3%
3,7%+
$1,084 Объем
4%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges, with Brent crude near $100 per barrel, have prompted downward revisions to 2026 global GDP forecasts from institutions like the World Bank (2.5%) and UN (2.6%), while the IMF holds at 3.0%. These shocks have elevated inflation risks and tempered activity in energy-importing economies, though AI-driven tech momentum and policy buffers have supported resilience in some regions. With market-implied odds tightly clustered at 3.1% (29.1%) and 3.0% (26.0%), traders appear to weigh the conflict's downside against offsetting factors like favorable terms-of-trade for exporters and subdued broader disinflation progress. Key near-term catalysts include any de-escalation signals or further oil volatility ahead of year-end data releases that could shift the narrow consensus.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Открытие рынка: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Объем
$36,277Дата окончания
15 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges, with Brent crude near $100 per barrel, have prompted downward revisions to 2026 global GDP forecasts from institutions like the World Bank (2.5%) and UN (2.6%), while the IMF holds at 3.0%. These shocks have elevated inflation risks and tempered activity in energy-importing economies, though AI-driven tech momentum and policy buffers have supported resilience in some regions. With market-implied odds tightly clustered at 3.1% (29.1%) and 3.0% (26.0%), traders appear to weigh the conflict's downside against offsetting factors like favorable terms-of-trade for exporters and subdued broader disinflation progress. Key near-term catalysts include any de-escalation signals or further oil volatility ahead of year-end data releases that could shift the narrow consensus.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Объем
$36,277Дата окончания
15 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Middle East conflict-driven energy price surges, with Brent crude near $100 per barrel, have prompted downward revisions to 2026 global GDP forecasts from institutions like the World Bank (2.5%) and UN (2.6%), while the IMF holds at 3.0%. These shocks have elevated inflation risks and tempered activity in energy-importing economies, though AI-driven tech momentum and policy buffers have supported resilience in some regions. With market-implied odds tightly clustered at 3.1% (29.1%) and 3.0% (26.0%), traders appear to weigh the conflict's downside against offsetting factors like favorable terms-of-trade for exporters and subdued broader disinflation progress. Key near-term catalysts include any de-escalation signals or further oil volatility ahead of year-end data releases that could shift the narrow consensus.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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