Recent developments in the Middle East conflict have driven Brent crude toward $100 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressures and prompting institutions to trim 2026 global GDP forecasts to the 2.5–3.0% range, with the IMF holding at 3.0%, the World Bank at 2.5%, and the UN at 2.6%. Trader consensus reflected in the 3.0–3.1% probabilities incorporates resilience from AI-related capital expenditure offsetting energy shocks, alongside evidence that many economies have drawn on reserves or shifted sources to cushion the impact. Key swing factors include the trajectory of oil prices, any further escalation or de-escalation in hostilities, and upcoming inflation and industrial production releases that could shift the market-implied path for monetary policy easing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено3,1% 29.1%
3,0% 20.4%
3,2% 17.6%
≤2,9% 16.0%
$36,277 Объем
$36,277 Объем
14 янв. 2027 г.
≤2,9%
16%
3,0%
20%
3,1%
29%
3,2%
18%
3,3%
5%
3,4%
4%
3,5%
2%
3,6%
3%
3,7%+
11%
3,1% 29.1%
3,0% 20.4%
3,2% 17.6%
≤2,9% 16.0%
$36,277 Объем
$36,277 Объем
14 янв. 2027 г.
≤2,9%
$6,342 Объем
16%
3,0%
$5,429 Объем
20%
3,1%
$7,793 Объем
29%
3,2%
$2,451 Объем
18%
3,3%
$4,059 Объем
5%
3,4%
$4,568 Объем
4%
3,5%
$3,612 Объем
2%
3,6%
$939 Объем
3%
3,7%+
$1,084 Объем
11%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent developments in the Middle East conflict have driven Brent crude toward $100 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressures and prompting institutions to trim 2026 global GDP forecasts to the 2.5–3.0% range, with the IMF holding at 3.0%, the World Bank at 2.5%, and the UN at 2.6%. Trader consensus reflected in the 3.0–3.1% probabilities incorporates resilience from AI-related capital expenditure offsetting energy shocks, alongside evidence that many economies have drawn on reserves or shifted sources to cushion the impact. Key swing factors include the trajectory of oil prices, any further escalation or de-escalation in hostilities, and upcoming inflation and industrial production releases that could shift the market-implied path for monetary policy easing.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Открытие рынка: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
Объем
$36,277Дата окончания
15 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent developments in the Middle East conflict have driven Brent crude toward $100 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressures and prompting institutions to trim 2026 global GDP forecasts to the 2.5–3.0% range, with the IMF holding at 3.0%, the World Bank at 2.5%, and the UN at 2.6%. Trader consensus reflected in the 3.0–3.1% probabilities incorporates resilience from AI-related capital expenditure offsetting energy shocks, alongside evidence that many economies have drawn on reserves or shifted sources to cushion the impact. Key swing factors include the trajectory of oil prices, any further escalation or de-escalation in hostilities, and upcoming inflation and industrial production releases that could shift the market-implied path for monetary policy easing.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Объем
$36,277Дата окончания
15 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Recent developments in the Middle East conflict have driven Brent crude toward $100 per barrel, reigniting inflationary pressures and prompting institutions to trim 2026 global GDP forecasts to the 2.5–3.0% range, with the IMF holding at 3.0%, the World Bank at 2.5%, and the UN at 2.6%. Trader consensus reflected in the 3.0–3.1% probabilities incorporates resilience from AI-related capital expenditure offsetting energy shocks, alongside evidence that many economies have drawn on reserves or shifted sources to cushion the impact. Key swing factors include the trajectory of oil prices, any further escalation or de-escalation in hostilities, and upcoming inflation and industrial production releases that could shift the market-implied path for monetary policy easing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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