Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP forecasts, now clustered around 1.2-1.3 percent by institutes including Kiel, IW, and IMK, reflect stronger-than-expected first-half momentum with Q1 and Q2 quarter-on-quarter gains of 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent. This underpins trader emphasis on the 1.3 percent-plus Q3 bucket despite headwinds. Elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, persistent 2.7 percent inflation eroding real wages, and temporary Rhine low-water disruptions are expected to limit Q3 expansion to around 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter. Expansionary fiscal measures on defense and infrastructure, alongside improving business sentiment and export trends, provide offsetting support ahead of the October flash release. Market-implied odds capture this balance between H1 carryover and near-term fragility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено1.3%+ 43%
0.7-0.9% 30%
1.0-1.2% 21%
≤0.0% <1%
$45,925 Объем
$45,925 Объем
30 окт. 2026 г.
≤0.0%
1%
0.1-0.3%
1%
0.4-0.6%
1%
0.7-0.9%
30%
1.0-1.2%
21%
1.3%+
43%
1.3%+ 43%
0.7-0.9% 30%
1.0-1.2% 21%
≤0.0% <1%
$45,925 Объем
$45,925 Объем
30 окт. 2026 г.
≤0.0%
$1,908 Объем
1%
0.1-0.3%
$2,032 Объем
1%
0.4-0.6%
$1,089 Объем
1%
0.7-0.9%
$7,852 Объем
30%
1.0-1.2%
$24,997 Объем
21%
1.3%+
$8,046 Объем
43%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP forecasts, now clustered around 1.2-1.3 percent by institutes including Kiel, IW, and IMK, reflect stronger-than-expected first-half momentum with Q1 and Q2 quarter-on-quarter gains of 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent. This underpins trader emphasis on the 1.3 percent-plus Q3 bucket despite headwinds. Elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, persistent 2.7 percent inflation eroding real wages, and temporary Rhine low-water disruptions are expected to limit Q3 expansion to around 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter. Expansionary fiscal measures on defense and infrastructure, alongside improving business sentiment and export trends, provide offsetting support ahead of the October flash release. Market-implied odds capture this balance between H1 carryover and near-term fragility.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Объем
$45,925Дата окончания
30 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP forecasts, now clustered around 1.2-1.3 percent by institutes including Kiel, IW, and IMK, reflect stronger-than-expected first-half momentum with Q1 and Q2 quarter-on-quarter gains of 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent. This underpins trader emphasis on the 1.3 percent-plus Q3 bucket despite headwinds. Elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, persistent 2.7 percent inflation eroding real wages, and temporary Rhine low-water disruptions are expected to limit Q3 expansion to around 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter. Expansionary fiscal measures on defense and infrastructure, alongside improving business sentiment and export trends, provide offsetting support ahead of the October flash release. Market-implied odds capture this balance between H1 carryover and near-term fragility.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$45,925Дата окончания
30 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent upward revisions to Germany's full-year 2026 GDP forecasts, now clustered around 1.2-1.3 percent by institutes including Kiel, IW, and IMK, reflect stronger-than-expected first-half momentum with Q1 and Q2 quarter-on-quarter gains of 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent. This underpins trader emphasis on the 1.3 percent-plus Q3 bucket despite headwinds. Elevated energy prices tied to the Iran conflict, persistent 2.7 percent inflation eroding real wages, and temporary Rhine low-water disruptions are expected to limit Q3 expansion to around 0.1 percent quarter-on-quarter. Expansionary fiscal measures on defense and infrastructure, alongside improving business sentiment and export trends, provide offsetting support ahead of the October flash release. Market-implied odds capture this balance between H1 carryover and near-term fragility.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы