Skip to main content
icon for Рост ВВП в 2026 году
Экономика·Экономическая политика

Рост ВВП в 2026 году

icon for Рост ВВП в 2026 году
Экономика·Экономическая политика

Рост ВВП в 2026 году

июл. 30

янв. 29, 2027

июл. 30

янв. 29, 2027

>2,5% 44%

1,5–2,0% 18.0%

2,0–2,5% 15%

1,0–1,5% 15.0%

Polymarket

$30,024 Объем

>2,5% 44%

1,5–2,0% 18.0%

2,0–2,5% 15%

1,0–1,5% 15.0%

Polymarket

$30,024 Объем

<0,5%

$4,114 Объем

6%

0,5–1,0%

$15,520 Объем

6%

1,0–1,5%

$1,936 Объем

16%

1,5–2,0%

$1,982 Объем

18%

2,0–2,5%

$2,150 Объем

15%

>2,5%

$4,322 Объем

44%

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data at 1.6% annualized has tempered near-term momentum, yet trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (46%) to full-year growth exceeding 2.5%. This positioning reflects expectations that fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act—tax cuts boosting consumption and immediate expensing spurring investment—will outweigh drags from elevated tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy-price spikes tied to Middle East conflict. Official forecasts cluster around 2.2%, including the CBO and FOMC’s March median, while labor-market resilience and potential further monetary easing provide additional support. Key upcoming releases, such as the final Q1 GDP on June 25 and subsequent quarterly data, alongside FOMC communications, will likely influence revisions to these market-implied odds.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$30,024
Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data at 1.6% annualized has tempered near-term momentum, yet trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (46%) to full-year growth exceeding 2.5%. This positioning reflects expectations that fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act—tax cuts boosting consumption and immediate expensing spurring investment—will outweigh drags from elevated tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy-price spikes tied to Middle East conflict. Official forecasts cluster around 2.2%, including the CBO and FOMC’s March median, while labor-market resilience and potential further monetary easing provide additional support. Key upcoming releases, such as the final Q1 GDP on June 25 and subsequent quarterly data, alongside FOMC communications, will likely influence revisions to these market-implied odds.

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product

Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$30,024
Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.
Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«Рост ВВП в 2026 году» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 6 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «>2,5%» с 44%, за ним следует «1,5–2,0%» с 18%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 44¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 44%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

На сегодняшний день «Рост ВВП в 2026 году» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $30K с момента запуска рынка Nov 12, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.

Чтобы торговать на «Рост ВВП в 2026 году», просмотри 6 доступных исходов на этой странице. Каждый исход показывает текущую цену, представляющую подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Чтобы занять позицию, выбери исход, который считаешь наиболее вероятным, выбери «Да» для торговли в его пользу или «Нет» для торговли против, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если твой выбранный исход окажется верным, твои акции «Да» принесут $1 каждая. Если нет — $0. Ты также можешь продать акции до разрешения.

Текущий фаворит для «Рост ВВП в 2026 году» — «>2,5%» с 44%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 44%. Следующий ближайший исход — «1,5–2,0%» с 18%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.

Правила разрешения «Рост ВВП в 2026 году» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.