Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in the first quarter, while projections from the IMF, CBO, and major banks center on 2.0–2.3% full-year growth driven by business investment in AI-related capital expenditures and resilient consumer spending. A stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.6% and contained inflation have reinforced trader expectations of above-trend expansion rather than contraction. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include sharper tariff escalations, unexpected inflation spikes prompting tighter monetary policy, or accelerated labor-market weakening that curtails household demand.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОтрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?
Отрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?
Да
4% вероятность
$32,234 Объем
$32,234 Объем
28 янв. 2027 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$32,234 Объем
$32,234 Объем
28 янв. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in the first quarter, while projections from the IMF, CBO, and major banks center on 2.0–2.3% full-year growth driven by business investment in AI-related capital expenditures and resilient consumer spending. A stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.6% and contained inflation have reinforced trader expectations of above-trend expansion rather than contraction. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include sharper tariff escalations, unexpected inflation spikes prompting tighter monetary policy, or accelerated labor-market weakening that curtails household demand.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Объем
$32,234Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in the first quarter, while projections from the IMF, CBO, and major banks center on 2.0–2.3% full-year growth driven by business investment in AI-related capital expenditures and resilient consumer spending. A stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.6% and contained inflation have reinforced trader expectations of above-trend expansion rather than contraction. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include sharper tariff escalations, unexpected inflation spikes prompting tighter monetary policy, or accelerated labor-market weakening that curtails household demand.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Объем
$32,234Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. Second-quarter real GDP expanded at a 1.5% annualized rate, following 2.1% in the first quarter, while projections from the IMF, CBO, and major banks center on 2.0–2.3% full-year growth driven by business investment in AI-related capital expenditures and resilient consumer spending. A stable labor market with unemployment near 4.1–4.6% and contained inflation have reinforced trader expectations of above-trend expansion rather than contraction. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include sharper tariff escalations, unexpected inflation spikes prompting tighter monetary policy, or accelerated labor-market weakening that curtails household demand.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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