Major forecasters including the Congressional Budget Office and private institutions project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.0–2.3% for 2026, supported by business investment in AI-driven productivity, resilient consumer spending, and fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures. This baseline outlook, reinforced by a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession probabilities around 30%, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative growth. Elevated core inflation near 3% has kept monetary policy on hold, while energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions poses the main near-term headwind. Tail risks remain limited but include escalation in global conflicts disrupting supply chains or an abrupt reversal in investment momentum that could tip quarterly readings into contraction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоОтрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?
Отрицательный рост ВВП в 2026 году?
Да
4% вероятность
$32,234 Объем
$32,234 Объем
28 янв. 2027 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$32,234 Объем
$32,234 Объем
28 янв. 2027 г.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Major forecasters including the Congressional Budget Office and private institutions project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.0–2.3% for 2026, supported by business investment in AI-driven productivity, resilient consumer spending, and fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures. This baseline outlook, reinforced by a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession probabilities around 30%, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative growth. Elevated core inflation near 3% has kept monetary policy on hold, while energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions poses the main near-term headwind. Tail risks remain limited but include escalation in global conflicts disrupting supply chains or an abrupt reversal in investment momentum that could tip quarterly readings into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Открытие рынка: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Объем
$32,234Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Major forecasters including the Congressional Budget Office and private institutions project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.0–2.3% for 2026, supported by business investment in AI-driven productivity, resilient consumer spending, and fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures. This baseline outlook, reinforced by a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession probabilities around 30%, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative growth. Elevated core inflation near 3% has kept monetary policy on hold, while energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions poses the main near-term headwind. Tail risks remain limited but include escalation in global conflicts disrupting supply chains or an abrupt reversal in investment momentum that could tip quarterly readings into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Объем
$32,234Дата окончания
29 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Major forecasters including the Congressional Budget Office and private institutions project U.S. real GDP expanding 2.0–2.3% for 2026, supported by business investment in AI-driven productivity, resilient consumer spending, and fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures. This baseline outlook, reinforced by a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession probabilities around 30%, underpins the 96% market-implied odds against negative growth. Elevated core inflation near 3% has kept monetary policy on hold, while energy price volatility from geopolitical tensions poses the main near-term headwind. Tail risks remain limited but include escalation in global conflicts disrupting supply chains or an abrupt reversal in investment momentum that could tip quarterly readings into contraction.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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