**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market, underpins the 64.5% market-implied probability against any federal funds rate hike in 2026.** The target range remains 3.50%-3.75% (effective rate near 3.62%), with May and recent PCE readings showing headline inflation near 3.5-4.2% and core measures elevated, driven partly by energy prices. Strong May payroll gains and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate have reduced near-term easing pressure while leaving room for later tightening only if price pressures intensify further. Futures markets price modest upside risk late in the year, but the majority economist consensus favors holding steady through year-end. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, along with upcoming CPI and employment releases, remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$2,031,353 Объем
$2,031,353 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$2,031,353 Объем
$2,031,353 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market, underpins the 64.5% market-implied probability against any federal funds rate hike in 2026.** The target range remains 3.50%-3.75% (effective rate near 3.62%), with May and recent PCE readings showing headline inflation near 3.5-4.2% and core measures elevated, driven partly by energy prices. Strong May payroll gains and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate have reduced near-term easing pressure while leaving room for later tightening only if price pressures intensify further. Futures markets price modest upside risk late in the year, but the majority economist consensus favors holding steady through year-end. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, along with upcoming CPI and employment releases, remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
Объем
$2,031,353Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market, underpins the 64.5% market-implied probability against any federal funds rate hike in 2026.** The target range remains 3.50%-3.75% (effective rate near 3.62%), with May and recent PCE readings showing headline inflation near 3.5-4.2% and core measures elevated, driven partly by energy prices. Strong May payroll gains and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate have reduced near-term easing pressure while leaving room for later tightening only if price pressures intensify further. Futures markets price modest upside risk late in the year, but the majority economist consensus favors holding steady through year-end. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, along with upcoming CPI and employment releases, remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$2,031,444Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, alongside a resilient labor market, underpins the 64.5% market-implied probability against any federal funds rate hike in 2026.** The target range remains 3.50%-3.75% (effective rate near 3.62%), with May and recent PCE readings showing headline inflation near 3.5-4.2% and core measures elevated, driven partly by energy prices. Strong May payroll gains and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate have reduced near-term easing pressure while leaving room for later tightening only if price pressures intensify further. Futures markets price modest upside risk late in the year, but the majority economist consensus favors holding steady through year-end. The June 16-17 FOMC meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, along with upcoming CPI and employment releases, remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the balance.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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