Recent sticky inflation and resilient labor market data have anchored trader sentiment around the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, with Polymarket pricing a 61.5% chance of no change in the federal funds rate from its current 3.5–3.75% target range. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI increased 0.3% and nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Hawkish comments from Chair Kevin Warsh and expectations of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting have lifted the probability of a follow-on October increase to 37.5%, though the proximity to midterms and the potential for policy to pause after one adjustment continue to favor a hold as the base case.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 62%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 38%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.1%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. 1.0%
$1,788,082 Объем
$1,788,082 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
2%
Без изменений
62%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
38%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Без изменений 62%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 38%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 2.1%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. 1.0%
$1,788,082 Объем
$1,788,082 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$299,086 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$610,499 Объем
2%
Без изменений
$301,706 Объем
62%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$373,462 Объем
38%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$203,329 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent sticky inflation and resilient labor market data have anchored trader sentiment around the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, with Polymarket pricing a 61.5% chance of no change in the federal funds rate from its current 3.5–3.75% target range. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI increased 0.3% and nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Hawkish comments from Chair Kevin Warsh and expectations of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting have lifted the probability of a follow-on October increase to 37.5%, though the proximity to midterms and the potential for policy to pause after one adjustment continue to favor a hold as the base case.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Объем
$1,788,082Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent sticky inflation and resilient labor market data have anchored trader sentiment around the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, with Polymarket pricing a 61.5% chance of no change in the federal funds rate from its current 3.5–3.75% target range. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI increased 0.3% and nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Hawkish comments from Chair Kevin Warsh and expectations of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting have lifted the probability of a follow-on October increase to 37.5%, though the proximity to midterms and the potential for policy to pause after one adjustment continue to favor a hold as the base case.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$1,788,082Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent sticky inflation and resilient labor market data have anchored trader sentiment around the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, with Polymarket pricing a 61.5% chance of no change in the federal funds rate from its current 3.5–3.75% target range. August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, while core CPI increased 0.3% and nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs with unemployment steady at 4.1%. Hawkish comments from Chair Kevin Warsh and expectations of a 25-basis-point hike at the September 15–16 meeting have lifted the probability of a follow-on October increase to 37.5%, though the proximity to midterms and the potential for policy to pause after one adjustment continue to favor a hold as the base case.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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