Elevated August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year alongside 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll gains have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, positioning no change at 61.5% implied probability. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, combined with resilient labor conditions, has tempered cut odds near 2% while supporting a 37.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike as markets price potential policy tightening. Recent central bank commentary and cross-market divergence with futures highlight uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 decision and incoming data releases, underscoring how incoming inflation and employment prints could shift the balance between hold and modest tightening scenarios.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 62%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 38%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.6%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. 1.0%
$1,768,333 Объем
$1,768,333 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
2%
Без изменений
62%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
38%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Без изменений 62%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 38%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.6%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. 1.0%
$1,768,333 Объем
$1,768,333 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$293,612 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$600,539 Объем
2%
Без изменений
$299,249 Объем
62%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$372,169 Объем
38%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$202,764 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year alongside 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll gains have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, positioning no change at 61.5% implied probability. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, combined with resilient labor conditions, has tempered cut odds near 2% while supporting a 37.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike as markets price potential policy tightening. Recent central bank commentary and cross-market divergence with futures highlight uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 decision and incoming data releases, underscoring how incoming inflation and employment prints could shift the balance between hold and modest tightening scenarios.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Объем
$1,768,333Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year alongside 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll gains have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, positioning no change at 61.5% implied probability. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, combined with resilient labor conditions, has tempered cut odds near 2% while supporting a 37.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike as markets price potential policy tightening. Recent central bank commentary and cross-market divergence with futures highlight uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 decision and incoming data releases, underscoring how incoming inflation and employment prints could shift the balance between hold and modest tightening scenarios.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$1,768,333Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Elevated August 2026 CPI at 3.4% year-over-year alongside 4.1% unemployment and steady payroll gains have anchored trader expectations for the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, positioning no change at 61.5% implied probability. Persistent inflation above the 2% target, combined with resilient labor conditions, has tempered cut odds near 2% while supporting a 37.5% chance of a 25-basis-point hike as markets price potential policy tightening. Recent central bank commentary and cross-market divergence with futures highlight uncertainty ahead of the September 15–16 decision and incoming data releases, underscoring how incoming inflation and employment prints could shift the balance between hold and modest tightening scenarios.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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