Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50%-3.75% target range through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings. The May 2026 CPI report, showing headline inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year and core at 2.9%, combined with solid May employment gains and unemployment near 4.3%, have reinforced the case for caution amid war-related supply shocks. Market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause path at 67.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that data will not yet justify easing. The June 16-17 meeting, with its associated projections, represents the immediate catalyst, while subsequent releases on inflation and jobs will shape any potential shifts in the rate path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPause–Pause–Pause 72%
Pause–Pause–Cut 24.8%
Other 10%
Pause–Cut–Pause 3.8%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 сент. 2026 г.
Cut–Pause–Pause
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
68%
Pause–Pause–Cut
25%
Pause–Cut–Pause
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
2%
Other
10%
Pause–Pause–Pause 72%
Pause–Pause–Cut 24.8%
Other 10%
Pause–Cut–Pause 3.8%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
16 сент. 2026 г.
Cut–Pause–Pause
$419 Объем
<1%
Cut–Pause–Cut
$540 Объем
1%
Cut–Cut–Pause
$307 Объем
<1%
Cut–Cut–Cut
$270 Объем
1%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$1,038 Объем
68%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$331 Объем
25%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$230 Объем
4%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$276 Объем
2%
Other
$318 Объем
10%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50%-3.75% target range through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings. The May 2026 CPI report, showing headline inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year and core at 2.9%, combined with solid May employment gains and unemployment near 4.3%, have reinforced the case for caution amid war-related supply shocks. Market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause path at 67.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that data will not yet justify easing. The June 16-17 meeting, with its associated projections, represents the immediate catalyst, while subsequent releases on inflation and jobs will shape any potential shifts in the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Объем
$3,730Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50%-3.75% target range through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings. The May 2026 CPI report, showing headline inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year and core at 2.9%, combined with solid May employment gains and unemployment near 4.3%, have reinforced the case for caution amid war-related supply shocks. Market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause path at 67.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that data will not yet justify easing. The June 16-17 meeting, with its associated projections, represents the immediate catalyst, while subsequent releases on inflation and jobs will shape any potential shifts in the rate path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$3,730Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market are anchoring trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at its current 3.50%-3.75% target range through the June, July, and September 2026 FOMC meetings. The May 2026 CPI report, showing headline inflation rising to 4.2% year-over-year and core at 2.9%, combined with solid May employment gains and unemployment near 4.3%, have reinforced the case for caution amid war-related supply shocks. Market-implied odds heavily favor the Pause–Pause–Pause path at 67.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus that data will not yet justify easing. The June 16-17 meeting, with its associated projections, represents the immediate catalyst, while subsequent releases on inflation and jobs will shape any potential shifts in the rate path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы