Traders assign a 97.3% probability that Jerome Powell avoids incarceration before 2027, reflecting broad consensus around institutional safeguards and the absence of credible legal proceedings against the Federal Reserve Chair. Recent Fed communications and congressional oversight have reinforced policy continuity without triggering enforcement actions, while historical precedent shows central bankers rarely face criminal charges tied to monetary decisions. Key factors include statutory protections, ongoing term through mid-2026, and limited partisan appetite for escalation that could destabilize markets. Tail risks remain remote but include unprecedented political shifts or regulatory findings post-tenure that might alter the trajectory before the 2027 cutoff.