Traders assign a 97.1% implied probability that Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell avoids jail before 2027, driven by the complete lack of criminal indictments, investigations, or credible legal claims against him. Powell's monetary policy role through the FOMC shapes interest rates, Treasury yields, and inflation expectations without exposing him to personal liability under standard statutes. Institutional norms and historical precedent protect central bankers from prosecution tied to official duties. Tail risks remain minimal but could involve extreme political scenarios or regulatory overreach in a shifting administration; even then, due process and separation of powers create formidable barriers. Focus stays on upcoming FOMC decisions and economic releases rather than personal legal exposure.