The primary driver behind the 98.1% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 is the Department of Justice’s April 2026 decision to drop its criminal probe into his congressional testimony on the Federal Reserve’s headquarters renovation costs, with no charges ever filed and a federal judge earlier quashing related subpoenas for lack of evidence. This outcome followed a politically charged inquiry opened in late 2025 amid tensions over monetary policy independence, but yielded no indictments or convictions. With resolution more than four months away and no active legal proceedings or credible new allegations reported since the closure, trader consensus reflects the low base rate of jailing a sitting or former Fed chair absent substantiated criminal conduct. Tail risks remain limited to hypothetical future referrals, though such developments would require unprecedented escalation beyond historical precedent.