The DOJ's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, launched in January 2026 over congressional testimony on the central bank's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation, was dropped without charges on April 24. This outcome, combined with Powell's ongoing role as a Board governor through 2028 after his chair term ended in May, underpins the 97.2% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Institutional safeguards, judicial precedent against politicized prosecutions of independent officials, and absence of substantiated evidence of wrongdoing have driven strong trader consensus. Tail risks remain limited but include hypothetical new allegations tied to monetary policy disputes or executive-branch pressure, though such scenarios face high evidentiary and legal hurdles within the remaining timeframe.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The DOJ's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, launched in January 2026 over congressional testimony on the central bank's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation, was dropped without charges on April 24. This outcome, combined with Powell's ongoing role as a Board governor through 2028 after his chair term ended in May, underpins the 97.2% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Institutional safeguards, judicial precedent against politicized prosecutions of independent officials, and absence of substantiated evidence of wrongdoing have driven strong trader consensus. Tail risks remain limited but include hypothetical new allegations tied to monetary policy disputes or executive-branch pressure, though such scenarios face high evidentiary and legal hurdles within the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Объем
$4,065Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The DOJ's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, launched in January 2026 over congressional testimony on the central bank's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation, was dropped without charges on April 24. This outcome, combined with Powell's ongoing role as a Board governor through 2028 after his chair term ended in May, underpins the 97.2% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Institutional safeguards, judicial precedent against politicized prosecutions of independent officials, and absence of substantiated evidence of wrongdoing have driven strong trader consensus. Tail risks remain limited but include hypothetical new allegations tied to monetary policy disputes or executive-branch pressure, though such scenarios face high evidentiary and legal hurdles within the remaining timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$4,065Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The DOJ's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, launched in January 2026 over congressional testimony on the central bank's $2.5 billion headquarters renovation, was dropped without charges on April 24. This outcome, combined with Powell's ongoing role as a Board governor through 2028 after his chair term ended in May, underpins the 97.2% market-implied probability that he avoids jail before 2027. Institutional safeguards, judicial precedent against politicized prosecutions of independent officials, and absence of substantiated evidence of wrongdoing have driven strong trader consensus. Tail risks remain limited but include hypothetical new allegations tied to monetary policy disputes or executive-branch pressure, though such scenarios face high evidentiary and legal hurdles within the remaining timeframe.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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