Trader consensus on the negligible probability of Jerome Powell facing incarceration before 2027 stems primarily from the swift closure of the January 2026 DOJ criminal probe into Fed headquarters renovation costs and related congressional testimony. That inquiry, widely viewed as politically motivated amid tensions over monetary policy and interest rate decisions, was transferred to the Fed inspector general by April 2026 with no charges filed. Institutional protections for independent central bankers, absence of prosecutable evidence, and historical precedent further anchor the 97.3% market-implied odds for "No." Tail risks remain remote but include hypothetical new allegations or unprecedented legal maneuvers post-term that could test norms around executive accountability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on the negligible probability of Jerome Powell facing incarceration before 2027 stems primarily from the swift closure of the January 2026 DOJ criminal probe into Fed headquarters renovation costs and related congressional testimony. That inquiry, widely viewed as politically motivated amid tensions over monetary policy and interest rate decisions, was transferred to the Fed inspector general by April 2026 with no charges filed. Institutional protections for independent central bankers, absence of prosecutable evidence, and historical precedent further anchor the 97.3% market-implied odds for "No." Tail risks remain remote but include hypothetical new allegations or unprecedented legal maneuvers post-term that could test norms around executive accountability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ET
Объем
$4,065Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Trader consensus on the negligible probability of Jerome Powell facing incarceration before 2027 stems primarily from the swift closure of the January 2026 DOJ criminal probe into Fed headquarters renovation costs and related congressional testimony. That inquiry, widely viewed as politically motivated amid tensions over monetary policy and interest rate decisions, was transferred to the Fed inspector general by April 2026 with no charges filed. Institutional protections for independent central bankers, absence of prosecutable evidence, and historical precedent further anchor the 97.3% market-implied odds for "No." Tail risks remain remote but include hypothetical new allegations or unprecedented legal maneuvers post-term that could test norms around executive accountability.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jerome Powell serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$4,065Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 12, 2026, 11:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the negligible probability of Jerome Powell facing incarceration before 2027 stems primarily from the swift closure of the January 2026 DOJ criminal probe into Fed headquarters renovation costs and related congressional testimony. That inquiry, widely viewed as politically motivated amid tensions over monetary policy and interest rate decisions, was transferred to the Fed inspector general by April 2026 with no charges filed. Institutional protections for independent central bankers, absence of prosecutable evidence, and historical precedent further anchor the 97.3% market-implied odds for "No." Tail risks remain remote but include hypothetical new allegations or unprecedented legal maneuvers post-term that could test norms around executive accountability.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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