**Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, tariff effects, and robust demand, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting.** With the policy rate holding at 3.5–3.75% following 2025 cuts, recent data show headline PCE near 4% and core measures elevated, while the labor market has stabilized with unemployment around 4.2% and modest job gains. This backdrop supports the 58% market-implied probability of no change, ahead of a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as traders price in the Fed’s data-dependent stance and limited urgency for easing amid resilient growth. Key upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and any further geopolitical developments will shape revisions to these odds ahead of the meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNo change 58%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
$71,022 Объем
$71,022 Объем
27 янв. 2027 г.
50+ bps decrease
5%
25 bps decrease
14%
No change
58%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов
23%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
2%
No change 58%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов 23%
25 bps decrease 14%
50+ bps decrease 4.5%
$71,022 Объем
$71,022 Объем
27 янв. 2027 г.
50+ bps decrease
$13,983 Объем
5%
25 bps decrease
$14,873 Объем
14%
No change
$21,181 Объем
58%
Повышение на 25 базисных пунктов
$17,011 Объем
23%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$3,974 Объем
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, tariff effects, and robust demand, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting.** With the policy rate holding at 3.5–3.75% following 2025 cuts, recent data show headline PCE near 4% and core measures elevated, while the labor market has stabilized with unemployment around 4.2% and modest job gains. This backdrop supports the 58% market-implied probability of no change, ahead of a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as traders price in the Fed’s data-dependent stance and limited urgency for easing amid resilient growth. Key upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and any further geopolitical developments will shape revisions to these odds ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Объем
$71,022Дата окончания
27 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.**Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, tariff effects, and robust demand, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting.** With the policy rate holding at 3.5–3.75% following 2025 cuts, recent data show headline PCE near 4% and core measures elevated, while the labor market has stabilized with unemployment around 4.2% and modest job gains. This backdrop supports the 58% market-implied probability of no change, ahead of a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as traders price in the Fed’s data-dependent stance and limited urgency for easing amid resilient growth. Key upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and any further geopolitical developments will shape revisions to these odds ahead of the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$71,022Дата окончания
27 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 8:39 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East tensions, tariff effects, and robust demand, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for no change at the January 2027 FOMC meeting.** With the policy rate holding at 3.5–3.75% following 2025 cuts, recent data show headline PCE near 4% and core measures elevated, while the labor market has stabilized with unemployment around 4.2% and modest job gains. This backdrop supports the 58% market-implied probability of no change, ahead of a 22.5% chance of a 25 basis point hike, as traders price in the Fed’s data-dependent stance and limited urgency for easing amid resilient growth. Key upcoming releases on inflation, employment, and any further geopolitical developments will shape revisions to these odds ahead of the meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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