Traders assign the highest probability to no change at the September 2026 FOMC meeting because recent policy statements and economic data have shown steady conditions supporting a pause. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through the April and prior meetings, with the March dot plot projecting only one 25-basis-point reduction for the full year. Minutes from the latest gathering noted modestly higher near-term inflation expectations alongside anchored longer-term measures, while market-implied paths point to any easing occurring in the fourth quarter or later. Modest probabilities for a 25-basis-point hike reflect occasional hawkish signals on inflation or growth, whereas cut odds remain limited by the absence of clear downside risks to employment or prices in the near term. Upcoming data releases on inflation, employment, and growth before mid-September could still shift these assessments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоNo change 76%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$90,757 Объем
$90,757 Объем
16 сент. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
No change
76%
25 bps increase
16%
50+ bps increase
2%
No change 76%
25 bps increase 16%
25 bps decrease 8%
50+ bps decrease 1.8%
$90,757 Объем
$90,757 Объем
16 сент. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
$15,169 Объем
2%
25 bps decrease
$20,319 Объем
8%
No change
$20,691 Объем
76%
25 bps increase
$18,935 Объем
16%
50+ bps increase
$15,643 Объем
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign the highest probability to no change at the September 2026 FOMC meeting because recent policy statements and economic data have shown steady conditions supporting a pause. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through the April and prior meetings, with the March dot plot projecting only one 25-basis-point reduction for the full year. Minutes from the latest gathering noted modestly higher near-term inflation expectations alongside anchored longer-term measures, while market-implied paths point to any easing occurring in the fourth quarter or later. Modest probabilities for a 25-basis-point hike reflect occasional hawkish signals on inflation or growth, whereas cut odds remain limited by the absence of clear downside risks to employment or prices in the near term. Upcoming data releases on inflation, employment, and growth before mid-September could still shift these assessments.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Объем
$90,757Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign the highest probability to no change at the September 2026 FOMC meeting because recent policy statements and economic data have shown steady conditions supporting a pause. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through the April and prior meetings, with the March dot plot projecting only one 25-basis-point reduction for the full year. Minutes from the latest gathering noted modestly higher near-term inflation expectations alongside anchored longer-term measures, while market-implied paths point to any easing occurring in the fourth quarter or later. Modest probabilities for a 25-basis-point hike reflect occasional hawkish signals on inflation or growth, whereas cut odds remain limited by the absence of clear downside risks to employment or prices in the near term. Upcoming data releases on inflation, employment, and growth before mid-September could still shift these assessments.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$90,757Дата окончания
16 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign the highest probability to no change at the September 2026 FOMC meeting because recent policy statements and economic data have shown steady conditions supporting a pause. The Federal Reserve has held the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through the April and prior meetings, with the March dot plot projecting only one 25-basis-point reduction for the full year. Minutes from the latest gathering noted modestly higher near-term inflation expectations alongside anchored longer-term measures, while market-implied paths point to any easing occurring in the fourth quarter or later. Modest probabilities for a 25-basis-point hike reflect occasional hawkish signals on inflation or growth, whereas cut odds remain limited by the absence of clear downside risks to employment or prices in the near term. Upcoming data releases on inflation, employment, and growth before mid-September could still shift these assessments.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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