Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. Minutes released May 20 highlighted officials’ focus on upside inflation risks and a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3%, shifting trader consensus toward an extended pause. This backdrop underpins the 93% market-implied probability of no rate changes through the June and July meetings. Key near-term catalysts include the June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC gathering, where further inflation persistence could sustain the hold while any rapid disinflation might introduce limited repricing risk.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.2%
Other 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$52,076 Объем
$52,076 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.2%
Other 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.4%
$52,076 Объем
$52,076 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
$3,509 Объем
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,373 Объем
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,558 Объем
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,874 Объем
1%
Other
$1,777 Объем
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. Minutes released May 20 highlighted officials’ focus on upside inflation risks and a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3%, shifting trader consensus toward an extended pause. This backdrop underpins the 93% market-implied probability of no rate changes through the June and July meetings. Key near-term catalysts include the June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC gathering, where further inflation persistence could sustain the hold while any rapid disinflation might introduce limited repricing risk.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Объем
$52,076Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. Minutes released May 20 highlighted officials’ focus on upside inflation risks and a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3%, shifting trader consensus toward an extended pause. This backdrop underpins the 93% market-implied probability of no rate changes through the June and July meetings. Key near-term catalysts include the June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC gathering, where further inflation persistence could sustain the hold while any rapid disinflation might introduce limited repricing risk.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$52,076Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, fueled by energy price spikes amid Middle East tensions, has reinforced the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% following the April 28-29 FOMC meeting. Minutes released May 20 highlighted officials’ focus on upside inflation risks and a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3%, shifting trader consensus toward an extended pause. This backdrop underpins the 93% market-implied probability of no rate changes through the June and July meetings. Key near-term catalysts include the June 10 CPI release and June 16-17 FOMC gathering, where further inflation persistence could sustain the hold while any rapid disinflation might introduce limited repricing risk.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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