Persistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year amid sharp energy price gains, alongside a stable 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader consensus around a pause at the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April, with market-implied odds reflecting limited scope for easing given resilient growth and recent data outturns. This 93% implied probability for three consecutive holds aligns with official communications emphasizing patience and higher-for-longer policy. A sharp moderation in upcoming inflation prints or a pronounced labor market softening ahead of the June 16-17 or July 28-29 gatherings could introduce volatility, though such shifts would require sustained evidence to materially alter the current pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPause–Pause–Pause 94%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.1%
Other 2.6%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$51,315 Объем
$51,315 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 94%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.1%
Other 2.6%
Pause–Cut–Pause 2.0%
$51,315 Объем
$51,315 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
$3,249 Объем
94%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,875 Объем
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,556 Объем
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,874 Объем
1%
Other
$1,775 Объем
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year amid sharp energy price gains, alongside a stable 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader consensus around a pause at the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April, with market-implied odds reflecting limited scope for easing given resilient growth and recent data outturns. This 93% implied probability for three consecutive holds aligns with official communications emphasizing patience and higher-for-longer policy. A sharp moderation in upcoming inflation prints or a pronounced labor market softening ahead of the June 16-17 or July 28-29 gatherings could introduce volatility, though such shifts would require sustained evidence to materially alter the current pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Объем
$51,315Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year amid sharp energy price gains, alongside a stable 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader consensus around a pause at the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April, with market-implied odds reflecting limited scope for easing given resilient growth and recent data outturns. This 93% implied probability for three consecutive holds aligns with official communications emphasizing patience and higher-for-longer policy. A sharp moderation in upcoming inflation prints or a pronounced labor market softening ahead of the June 16-17 or July 28-29 gatherings could introduce volatility, though such shifts would require sustained evidence to materially alter the current pricing.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$51,315Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation pressures, with April 2026 CPI rising 3.8% year-over-year amid sharp energy price gains, alongside a stable 4.3% unemployment rate, have anchored trader consensus around a pause at the April, June, and July FOMC meetings. The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in late April, with market-implied odds reflecting limited scope for easing given resilient growth and recent data outturns. This 93% implied probability for three consecutive holds aligns with official communications emphasizing patience and higher-for-longer policy. A sharp moderation in upcoming inflation prints or a pronounced labor market softening ahead of the June 16-17 or July 28-29 gatherings could introduce volatility, though such shifts would require sustained evidence to materially alter the current pricing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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