Trader consensus on the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.5%–3.75% federal funds rate target through the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings stands at a 93% implied probability, driven primarily by elevated inflation readings—including April CPI near 3.8% year-over-year—and the central bank's recent April decision to hold rates steady amid Middle East-related energy price pressures. Minutes from that meeting underscored participants' focus on inflation risks and a patient policy stance, with market pricing reflecting limited scope for cuts given stable labor market conditions. This strong positioning aligns with broader futures-implied paths showing no near-term easing. Scenarios that could realistically alter outcomes include a sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration or rapid disinflation data releases ahead of the June meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоPause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.1%
Other 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.8%
$52,074 Объем
$52,074 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 3.1%
Other 2.8%
Pause–Cut–Pause 1.8%
$52,074 Объем
$52,074 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
$3,506 Объем
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$2,373 Объем
3%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$2,558 Объем
2%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,874 Объем
1%
Other
$1,777 Объем
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.5%–3.75% federal funds rate target through the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings stands at a 93% implied probability, driven primarily by elevated inflation readings—including April CPI near 3.8% year-over-year—and the central bank's recent April decision to hold rates steady amid Middle East-related energy price pressures. Minutes from that meeting underscored participants' focus on inflation risks and a patient policy stance, with market pricing reflecting limited scope for cuts given stable labor market conditions. This strong positioning aligns with broader futures-implied paths showing no near-term easing. Scenarios that could realistically alter outcomes include a sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration or rapid disinflation data releases ahead of the June meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Объем
$52,074Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.5%–3.75% federal funds rate target through the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings stands at a 93% implied probability, driven primarily by elevated inflation readings—including April CPI near 3.8% year-over-year—and the central bank's recent April decision to hold rates steady amid Middle East-related energy price pressures. Minutes from that meeting underscored participants' focus on inflation risks and a patient policy stance, with market pricing reflecting limited scope for cuts given stable labor market conditions. This strong positioning aligns with broader futures-implied paths showing no near-term easing. Scenarios that could realistically alter outcomes include a sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration or rapid disinflation data releases ahead of the June meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$52,074Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the Federal Reserve maintaining its 3.5%–3.75% federal funds rate target through the April, June, and July 2026 FOMC meetings stands at a 93% implied probability, driven primarily by elevated inflation readings—including April CPI near 3.8% year-over-year—and the central bank's recent April decision to hold rates steady amid Middle East-related energy price pressures. Minutes from that meeting underscored participants' focus on inflation risks and a patient policy stance, with market pricing reflecting limited scope for cuts given stable labor market conditions. This strong positioning aligns with broader futures-implied paths showing no near-term easing. Scenarios that could realistically alter outcomes include a sharper-than-expected labor market deterioration or rapid disinflation data releases ahead of the June meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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