Traders have priced in a near-certain path of unchanged policy across the March, April/May, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid inflation readings that remain above the 2 percent target. Recent communications and minutes underscore policymakers’ focus on a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent and core price pressures that have not yet shown sustained moderation, prompting the Committee to hold the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75 percent range through the spring. Market-implied odds align with this cautious approach, as futures and options data indicate minimal probability of a 25 basis point adjustment before mid-year. A sharper-than-expected cooling in June inflation data or a material weakening in employment indicators could still introduce volatility ahead of the June 16–17 meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПауза–пауза–пауза 99.0%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение <1%
Другое <1%
$1,698,842 Объем
$1,698,842 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
99%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
1%
Другое
<1%
Пауза–пауза–пауза 99.0%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение <1%
Другое <1%
$1,698,842 Объем
$1,698,842 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
$307,115 Объем
99%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
$303,189 Объем
1%
Другое
$343,202 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders have priced in a near-certain path of unchanged policy across the March, April/May, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid inflation readings that remain above the 2 percent target. Recent communications and minutes underscore policymakers’ focus on a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent and core price pressures that have not yet shown sustained moderation, prompting the Committee to hold the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75 percent range through the spring. Market-implied odds align with this cautious approach, as futures and options data indicate minimal probability of a 25 basis point adjustment before mid-year. A sharper-than-expected cooling in June inflation data or a material weakening in employment indicators could still introduce volatility ahead of the June 16–17 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Объем
$1,698,842Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders have priced in a near-certain path of unchanged policy across the March, April/May, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid inflation readings that remain above the 2 percent target. Recent communications and minutes underscore policymakers’ focus on a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent and core price pressures that have not yet shown sustained moderation, prompting the Committee to hold the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75 percent range through the spring. Market-implied odds align with this cautious approach, as futures and options data indicate minimal probability of a 25 basis point adjustment before mid-year. A sharper-than-expected cooling in June inflation data or a material weakening in employment indicators could still introduce volatility ahead of the June 16–17 meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$1,698,842Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Traders have priced in a near-certain path of unchanged policy across the March, April/May, and June FOMC meetings, reflecting the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid inflation readings that remain above the 2 percent target. Recent communications and minutes underscore policymakers’ focus on a resilient labor market with unemployment near 4.3 percent and core price pressures that have not yet shown sustained moderation, prompting the Committee to hold the federal funds rate in the 3.5–3.75 percent range through the spring. Market-implied odds align with this cautious approach, as futures and options data indicate minimal probability of a 25 basis point adjustment before mid-year. A sharper-than-expected cooling in June inflation data or a material weakening in employment indicators could still introduce volatility ahead of the June 16–17 meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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