Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by the March 18 decision to maintain steady policy amid resilient economic data. March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—fueled by energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, exceeding expectations and underscoring labor market strength. The March dot plot projects a median 3.4% fed funds rate by end-2026, implying one 25-basis-point cut later in the year. Minutes released April 8 hinted at rate hike openness if inflation persists. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI (due May 12) or weakening jobs data ahead of the May FOMC.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПауза–пауза–пауза 90%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 5.5%
Другое 1.8%
Пропуск–Снижение–Пропуск <1%
$968,237 Объем
$968,237 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
90%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
5%
Другое
2%
Пропуск–Снижение–Пропуск
1%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение
1%
Пауза–пауза–пауза 90%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 5.5%
Другое 1.8%
Пропуск–Снижение–Пропуск <1%
$968,237 Объем
$968,237 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
$36,859 Объем
90%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
$18,544 Объем
5%
Другое
$219,591 Объем
2%
Пропуск–Снижение–Пропуск
$176,985 Объем
1%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение
$516,258 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by the March 18 decision to maintain steady policy amid resilient economic data. March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—fueled by energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, exceeding expectations and underscoring labor market strength. The March dot plot projects a median 3.4% fed funds rate by end-2026, implying one 25-basis-point cut later in the year. Minutes released April 8 hinted at rate hike openness if inflation persists. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI (due May 12) or weakening jobs data ahead of the May FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Объем
$968,237Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by the March 18 decision to maintain steady policy amid resilient economic data. March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—fueled by energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, exceeding expectations and underscoring labor market strength. The March dot plot projects a median 3.4% fed funds rate by end-2026, implying one 25-basis-point cut later in the year. Minutes released April 8 hinted at rate hike openness if inflation persists. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI (due May 12) or weakening jobs data ahead of the May FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$968,237Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 90.5% implied probability for Federal Reserve pauses at the March, May, and June 2026 FOMC meetings, holding the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, driven by the March 18 decision to maintain steady policy amid resilient economic data. March CPI surged 3.3% year-over-year—the highest since May 2024—fueled by energy price spikes from geopolitical tensions, while nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs, exceeding expectations and underscoring labor market strength. The March dot plot projects a median 3.4% fed funds rate by end-2026, implying one 25-basis-point cut later in the year. Minutes released April 8 hinted at rate hike openness if inflation persists. Scenarios challenging this include softer April CPI (due May 12) or weakening jobs data ahead of the May FOMC.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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