Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome at 90.5% implied probability for FOMC decisions in March, April, and June, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range amid surging March CPI inflation to 3.3% year-over-year—its highest since May 2024—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and FOMC minutes signaling openness to hikes have solidified no-cut consensus, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities near 94% for an April hold. This skin-in-the-game sentiment could shift if upcoming April 28-29 FOMC data reveals sharply cooling inflation or labor weakness, though persistent price pressures pose upside risks to rates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПауза–пауза–пауза 91%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 5.7%
Другое 1.9%
Пропуск–Снижение–Пропуск <1%
$968,271 Объем
$968,271 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
91%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
6%
Другое
2%
Пропуск–Снижение–Пропуск
1%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение
1%
Пауза–пауза–пауза 91%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение 5.7%
Другое 1.9%
Пропуск–Снижение–Пропуск <1%
$968,271 Объем
$968,271 Объем
17 июн. 2026 г.
Пауза–пауза–пауза
$36,893 Объем
91%
Пауза–Пауза–Снижение
$18,544 Объем
6%
Другое
$219,591 Объем
2%
Пропуск–Снижение–Пропуск
$176,985 Объем
1%
Прерыв–Снижение–Снижение
$516,258 Объем
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome at 90.5% implied probability for FOMC decisions in March, April, and June, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range amid surging March CPI inflation to 3.3% year-over-year—its highest since May 2024—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and FOMC minutes signaling openness to hikes have solidified no-cut consensus, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities near 94% for an April hold. This skin-in-the-game sentiment could shift if upcoming April 28-29 FOMC data reveals sharply cooling inflation or labor weakness, though persistent price pressures pose upside risks to rates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Объем
$968,271Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPolymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome at 90.5% implied probability for FOMC decisions in March, April, and June, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range amid surging March CPI inflation to 3.3% year-over-year—its highest since May 2024—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and FOMC minutes signaling openness to hikes have solidified no-cut consensus, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities near 94% for an April hold. This skin-in-the-game sentiment could shift if upcoming April 28-29 FOMC data reveals sharply cooling inflation or labor weakness, though persistent price pressures pose upside risks to rates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: March 17-18, 2026; April 28-29; and June 16-17.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$968,271Дата окончания
17 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 29, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly back a Pause-Pause-Pause outcome at 90.5% implied probability for FOMC decisions in March, April, and June, reflecting the Federal Reserve's March 17-18 hold at the 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range amid surging March CPI inflation to 3.3% year-over-year—its highest since May 2024—driven by energy shocks from the Iran conflict. Resilient March nonfarm payrolls adding 178,000 jobs and FOMC minutes signaling openness to hikes have solidified no-cut consensus, aligning with CME FedWatch probabilities near 94% for an April hold. This skin-in-the-game sentiment could shift if upcoming April 28-29 FOMC data reveals sharply cooling inflation or labor weakness, though persistent price pressures pose upside risks to rates.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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