Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.9% implied probability of no change in the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation since the March hold. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000—beating subdued expectations—while unemployment held at 4.3%, and core CPI pressures persisted above the 2% target per the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics release on April 10. The March dot plot signaled just one cut later in 2026, reinforcing a pause amid balanced risks. A surprise hawkish pivot or unforeseen global shock could challenge this consensus, though the policy statement and Chair Powell's April 29 press conference loom as the key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоРешение ФРС в апреле?
Решение ФРС в апреле?
Без изменений 99.8%
Снижение на более чем 50 базисных пунктов <1%
снижение на 25 базисных пунктов <1%
Увеличение на 25 базисных пунктов и более <1%
$196,161,857 Объем
$196,161,857 Объем
29 апр. 2026 г.
Снижение на более чем 50 базисных пунктов
<1%
снижение на 25 базисных пунктов
<1%
Без изменений
100%
Увеличение на 25 базисных пунктов и более
<1%
Без изменений 99.8%
Снижение на более чем 50 базисных пунктов <1%
снижение на 25 базисных пунктов <1%
Увеличение на 25 базисных пунктов и более <1%
$196,161,857 Объем
$196,161,857 Объем
29 апр. 2026 г.
Снижение на более чем 50 базисных пунктов
$59,800,330 Объем
<1%
снижение на 25 базисных пунктов
$39,693,880 Объем
<1%
Без изменений
$48,041,893 Объем
100%
Увеличение на 25 базисных пунктов и более
$49,025,855 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.9% implied probability of no change in the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation since the March hold. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000—beating subdued expectations—while unemployment held at 4.3%, and core CPI pressures persisted above the 2% target per the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics release on April 10. The March dot plot signaled just one cut later in 2026, reinforcing a pause amid balanced risks. A surprise hawkish pivot or unforeseen global shock could challenge this consensus, though the policy statement and Chair Powell's April 29 press conference loom as the key catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Объем
$196,161,857Дата окончания
29 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.9% implied probability of no change in the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation since the March hold. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000—beating subdued expectations—while unemployment held at 4.3%, and core CPI pressures persisted above the 2% target per the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics release on April 10. The March dot plot signaled just one cut later in 2026, reinforcing a pause amid balanced risks. A surprise hawkish pivot or unforeseen global shock could challenge this consensus, though the policy statement and Chair Powell's April 29 press conference loom as the key catalysts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$196,161,857Дата окончания
29 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders overwhelmingly price a 99.9% implied probability of no change in the Federal Reserve's 3.50%-3.75% federal funds target range at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting resilient labor market data and sticky inflation since the March hold. March nonfarm payrolls rose 178,000—beating subdued expectations—while unemployment held at 4.3%, and core CPI pressures persisted above the 2% target per the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics release on April 10. The March dot plot signaled just one cut later in 2026, reinforcing a pause amid balanced risks. A surprise hawkish pivot or unforeseen global shock could challenge this consensus, though the policy statement and Chair Powell's April 29 press conference loom as the key catalysts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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