Recent hawkish communications from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh, who assumed leadership in May, have driven 10-year Treasury yields to the 4.67–4.73% range as of late August 2026, reflecting trader focus on sticky core inflation near 3% and the risk of policy rates remaining elevated longer than previously anticipated. Persistent above-target price pressures, combined with AI-driven growth expectations and widening federal deficits projected near 6.6% of GDP, have lifted real yields and term premiums, pushing the market-implied neutral rate higher. Fiscal supply dynamics and reduced forward guidance have added upward pressure on longer-dated yields relative to the front end. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, upcoming CPI and employment data, and any shifts in oil prices or Treasury issuance patterns that could alter the path for yields through year-end.