The 10-year Treasury yield recently traded near 4.43–4.47% after touching 4.55% in mid-June 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns. Persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East have supported higher oil prices and inflation expectations, while the Fed’s patient stance—evident in the June 16–17 FOMC meeting—has kept short-term rate cuts limited and anchored longer-term yields in the 4–4.5% range. Market-implied odds price in upside risks from resilient growth and policy uncertainty through year-end, tempered by potential labor-market softening or recession signals that could cap peaks before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, the July FOMC meeting, and any shifts in Treasury supply dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$245,351 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
4.8%
13%
5.0%
9%
5.2%
4%
5.5%
4%
5.7%
3%
6.0%
3%
$245,351 Объем
4.8%
$52,111 Объем
13%
5.0%
$59,913 Объем
9%
5.2%
$18,315 Объем
4%
5.5%
$2,480 Объем
4%
5.7%
$3,817 Объем
3%
6.0%
$2,429 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield recently traded near 4.43–4.47% after touching 4.55% in mid-June 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns. Persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East have supported higher oil prices and inflation expectations, while the Fed’s patient stance—evident in the June 16–17 FOMC meeting—has kept short-term rate cuts limited and anchored longer-term yields in the 4–4.5% range. Market-implied odds price in upside risks from resilient growth and policy uncertainty through year-end, tempered by potential labor-market softening or recession signals that could cap peaks before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, the July FOMC meeting, and any shifts in Treasury supply dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET
Объем
$245,351Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield recently traded near 4.43–4.47% after touching 4.55% in mid-June 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns. Persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East have supported higher oil prices and inflation expectations, while the Fed’s patient stance—evident in the June 16–17 FOMC meeting—has kept short-term rate cuts limited and anchored longer-term yields in the 4–4.5% range. Market-implied odds price in upside risks from resilient growth and policy uncertainty through year-end, tempered by potential labor-market softening or recession signals that could cap peaks before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, the July FOMC meeting, and any shifts in Treasury supply dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Объем
$245,351Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 10-year Treasury yield recently traded near 4.43–4.47% after touching 4.55% in mid-June 2026, reflecting sticky core inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, elevated term premiums, and fiscal deficit concerns. Persistent geopolitical risks in the Middle East have supported higher oil prices and inflation expectations, while the Fed’s patient stance—evident in the June 16–17 FOMC meeting—has kept short-term rate cuts limited and anchored longer-term yields in the 4–4.5% range. Market-implied odds price in upside risks from resilient growth and policy uncertainty through year-end, tempered by potential labor-market softening or recession signals that could cap peaks before 2027. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, the July FOMC meeting, and any shifts in Treasury supply dynamics.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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