Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside resilient labor conditions at a 4.1% unemployment rate, underpins the 61.5% market-implied probability for “Other” outcomes in the July–October FOMC sequence. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and three dissents favoring a hike at the July meeting have shifted trader focus toward potential rate increases rather than the 35.5% priced for three consecutive pauses. Recent soft payroll prints and anchored expectations provide some offset, but the September meeting and incoming CPI/PCE releases remain key swing factors that could alter the implied path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоOther 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$730,441 Объем
$730,441 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
<1%
Other
62%
Other 62%
Pause–Pause–Pause 36%
Pause–Pause–Cut 2.1%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$730,441 Объем
$730,441 Объем
28 окт. 2026 г.
Pause–Pause–Pause
$241,054 Объем
36%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$61,014 Объем
2%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$41,467 Объем
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$27,277 Объем
<1%
Other
$316,142 Объем
62%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside resilient labor conditions at a 4.1% unemployment rate, underpins the 61.5% market-implied probability for “Other” outcomes in the July–October FOMC sequence. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and three dissents favoring a hike at the July meeting have shifted trader focus toward potential rate increases rather than the 35.5% priced for three consecutive pauses. Recent soft payroll prints and anchored expectations provide some offset, but the September meeting and incoming CPI/PCE releases remain key swing factors that could alter the implied path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Открытие рынка: Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ET
Объем
$730,441Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside resilient labor conditions at a 4.1% unemployment rate, underpins the 61.5% market-implied probability for “Other” outcomes in the July–October FOMC sequence. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and three dissents favoring a hike at the July meeting have shifted trader focus toward potential rate increases rather than the 35.5% priced for three consecutive pauses. Recent soft payroll prints and anchored expectations provide some offset, but the September meeting and incoming CPI/PCE releases remain key swing factors that could alter the implied path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: July 28-29; September 15-16; and October 27-28.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Объем
$730,441Дата окончания
28 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 17, 2026, 7:17 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, with July PCE at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%, alongside resilient labor conditions at a 4.1% unemployment rate, underpins the 61.5% market-implied probability for “Other” outcomes in the July–October FOMC sequence. Geopolitical pressures on energy prices and three dissents favoring a hike at the July meeting have shifted trader focus toward potential rate increases rather than the 35.5% priced for three consecutive pauses. Recent soft payroll prints and anchored expectations provide some offset, but the September meeting and incoming CPI/PCE releases remain key swing factors that could alter the implied path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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