Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside a robust 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. These releases, combined with hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and the September FOMC meeting, have elevated the market-implied probability of a 25 basis point December hike to 55.5%. Persistent shelter and energy pressures continue to outweigh cooling core trends at 2.4% year-over-year, while strong labor conditions reduce the urgency for accommodation. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 16 decision and subsequent inflation and employment prints that could shift the December path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено25 bps increase 56%
Без изменений 40%
50+ bps increase 4.2%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$687,490 Объем
$687,490 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
1%
25 bps decrease
4%
Без изменений
40%
25 bps increase
56%
50+ bps increase
4%
25 bps increase 56%
Без изменений 40%
50+ bps increase 4.2%
25 bps decrease 3.5%
$687,490 Объем
$687,490 Объем
9 дек. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
$102,808 Объем
1%
25 bps decrease
$155,970 Объем
4%
Без изменений
$136,748 Объем
40%
25 bps increase
$187,162 Объем
56%
50+ bps increase
$104,802 Объем
4%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside a robust 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. These releases, combined with hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and the September FOMC meeting, have elevated the market-implied probability of a 25 basis point December hike to 55.5%. Persistent shelter and energy pressures continue to outweigh cooling core trends at 2.4% year-over-year, while strong labor conditions reduce the urgency for accommodation. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 16 decision and subsequent inflation and employment prints that could shift the December path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Объем
$687,490Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside a robust 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. These releases, combined with hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and the September FOMC meeting, have elevated the market-implied probability of a 25 basis point December hike to 55.5%. Persistent shelter and energy pressures continue to outweigh cooling core trends at 2.4% year-over-year, while strong labor conditions reduce the urgency for accommodation. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 16 decision and subsequent inflation and employment prints that could shift the December path.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$687,490Дата окончания
9 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Recent August CPI data showing a 0.4% monthly rise and 3.4% year-over-year headline inflation, alongside a robust 162,000 nonfarm payroll gain and steady 4.1% unemployment, have reinforced trader expectations for tighter policy. These releases, combined with hawkish signals from Chair Warsh and the September FOMC meeting, have elevated the market-implied probability of a 25 basis point December hike to 55.5%. Persistent shelter and energy pressures continue to outweigh cooling core trends at 2.4% year-over-year, while strong labor conditions reduce the urgency for accommodation. Key upcoming catalysts include the September 16 decision and subsequent inflation and employment prints that could shift the December path.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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