Resilient U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish shift underpin the 96.1% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Following the unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%, Chair Kevin Warsh and FOMC participants emphasized elevated inflation near 3.7% headline PCE and 3.4% core, alongside solid GDP growth around 2.3%, steady job gains, and unemployment near 4.1%. Projections favor possible additional hikes this year rather than easing, reflecting a policy focus on price stability amid geopolitical uncertainty but without acute crisis conditions. Trader consensus in this real-money market aligns with official outlooks pointing to cuts no earlier than 2027. Tail risks such as a sharp escalation in Middle East tensions triggering severe supply shocks or an unexpected financial dislocation could still prompt an unscheduled easing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
4% вероятность
$222,745 Объем
$222,745 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
4% вероятность
$222,745 Объем
$222,745 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Resilient U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish shift underpin the 96.1% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Following the unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%, Chair Kevin Warsh and FOMC participants emphasized elevated inflation near 3.7% headline PCE and 3.4% core, alongside solid GDP growth around 2.3%, steady job gains, and unemployment near 4.1%. Projections favor possible additional hikes this year rather than easing, reflecting a policy focus on price stability amid geopolitical uncertainty but without acute crisis conditions. Trader consensus in this real-money market aligns with official outlooks pointing to cuts no earlier than 2027. Tail risks such as a sharp escalation in Middle East tensions triggering severe supply shocks or an unexpected financial dislocation could still prompt an unscheduled easing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Открытие рынка: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Объем
$222,745Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.Resilient U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish shift underpin the 96.1% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Following the unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%, Chair Kevin Warsh and FOMC participants emphasized elevated inflation near 3.7% headline PCE and 3.4% core, alongside solid GDP growth around 2.3%, steady job gains, and unemployment near 4.1%. Projections favor possible additional hikes this year rather than easing, reflecting a policy focus on price stability amid geopolitical uncertainty but without acute crisis conditions. Trader consensus in this real-money market aligns with official outlooks pointing to cuts no earlier than 2027. Tail risks such as a sharp escalation in Middle East tensions triggering severe supply shocks or an unexpected financial dislocation could still prompt an unscheduled easing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Объем
$222,745Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Resilient U.S. economic data and the Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish shift underpin the 96.1% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before 2027. Following the unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%, Chair Kevin Warsh and FOMC participants emphasized elevated inflation near 3.7% headline PCE and 3.4% core, alongside solid GDP growth around 2.3%, steady job gains, and unemployment near 4.1%. Projections favor possible additional hikes this year rather than easing, reflecting a policy focus on price stability amid geopolitical uncertainty but without acute crisis conditions. Trader consensus in this real-money market aligns with official outlooks pointing to cuts no earlier than 2027. Tail risks such as a sharp escalation in Middle East tensions triggering severe supply shocks or an unexpected financial dislocation could still prompt an unscheduled easing.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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