Persistent inflation near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year and a resilient labor market have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% target range since the July FOMC meeting, where three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Futures markets currently price a modest tightening path toward 3.8% by November, while economist surveys show roughly 80% expecting no change through year-end. Recent July employment weakness has tempered near-term hike odds, yet elevated energy prices and supply pressures keep hawkish sentiment alive ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC decision and upcoming CPI release. Trader consensus on prediction platforms reflects this uncertainty, with the highest probability attached to an October move.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$2,294,192 Объем
8 дек. 2026 г.
Сентябрьское заседание
27%
Октябрьское заседание
39%
$2,294,192 Объем
Сентябрьское заседание
$865,808 Объем
27%
Октябрьское заседание
$468,384 Объем
39%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year and a resilient labor market have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% target range since the July FOMC meeting, where three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Futures markets currently price a modest tightening path toward 3.8% by November, while economist surveys show roughly 80% expecting no change through year-end. Recent July employment weakness has tempered near-term hike odds, yet elevated energy prices and supply pressures keep hawkish sentiment alive ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC decision and upcoming CPI release. Trader consensus on prediction platforms reflects this uncertainty, with the highest probability attached to an October move.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Объем
$2,294,192Дата окончания
29 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year and a resilient labor market have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% target range since the July FOMC meeting, where three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Futures markets currently price a modest tightening path toward 3.8% by November, while economist surveys show roughly 80% expecting no change through year-end. Recent July employment weakness has tempered near-term hike odds, yet elevated energy prices and supply pressures keep hawkish sentiment alive ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC decision and upcoming CPI release. Trader consensus on prediction platforms reflects this uncertainty, with the highest probability attached to an October move.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$2,294,192Дата окончания
29 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation near 3.4–3.5% year-over-year and a resilient labor market have anchored the federal funds rate at the 3.50–3.75% target range since the July FOMC meeting, where three members dissented in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. Futures markets currently price a modest tightening path toward 3.8% by November, while economist surveys show roughly 80% expecting no change through year-end. Recent July employment weakness has tempered near-term hike odds, yet elevated energy prices and supply pressures keep hawkish sentiment alive ahead of the September 15–16 FOMC decision and upcoming CPI release. Trader consensus on prediction platforms reflects this uncertainty, with the highest probability attached to an October move.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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