The July 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on any near-term rate increase. Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July CPI—still well above the 2% target—combined with resilient growth, solid capital investment, and energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions outweighs the stable 4.1% unemployment rate. Markets now embed limited odds of easing while pricing in the risk of a September hike, with the upcoming August CPI release and employment report serving as key data points that could shift implied probabilities ahead of the next policy meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$2,310,544 Объем
8 дек. 2026 г.
Сентябрьское заседание
27%
Октябрьское заседание
40%
$2,310,544 Объем
Сентябрьское заседание
$866,457 Объем
27%
Октябрьское заседание
$484,087 Объем
40%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The July 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on any near-term rate increase. Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July CPI—still well above the 2% target—combined with resilient growth, solid capital investment, and energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions outweighs the stable 4.1% unemployment rate. Markets now embed limited odds of easing while pricing in the risk of a September hike, with the upcoming August CPI release and employment report serving as key data points that could shift implied probabilities ahead of the next policy meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Объем
$2,310,544Дата окончания
29 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The July 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on any near-term rate increase. Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July CPI—still well above the 2% target—combined with resilient growth, solid capital investment, and energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions outweighs the stable 4.1% unemployment rate. Markets now embed limited odds of easing while pricing in the risk of a September hike, with the upcoming August CPI release and employment report serving as key data points that could shift implied probabilities ahead of the next policy meeting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$2,310,544Дата окончания
29 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The July 2026 FOMC decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike, remains the dominant driver of trader sentiment on any near-term rate increase. Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July CPI—still well above the 2% target—combined with resilient growth, solid capital investment, and energy price pressures from geopolitical tensions outweighs the stable 4.1% unemployment rate. Markets now embed limited odds of easing while pricing in the risk of a September hike, with the upcoming August CPI release and employment report serving as key data points that could shift implied probabilities ahead of the next policy meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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