Elevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, alongside a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% during the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Recent April minutes and market-implied pricing reflect a data-dependent stance with limited near-term policy shifts, consistent with the 92.5% probability assigned to no change. The June 16-17 meeting with updated projections could refine this outlook, while stronger inflation prints or softening employment data represent the primary scenarios that could introduce modest tightening or easing odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 93%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 5.8%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.9%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$7,629,300 Объем
$7,629,300 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
2%
Без изменений
93%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
6%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 93%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 5.8%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.9%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$7,629,300 Объем
$7,629,300 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$993,127 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$766,754 Объем
2%
Без изменений
$962,666 Объем
93%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$3,792,942 Объем
6%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$1,113,826 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, alongside a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% during the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Recent April minutes and market-implied pricing reflect a data-dependent stance with limited near-term policy shifts, consistent with the 92.5% probability assigned to no change. The June 16-17 meeting with updated projections could refine this outlook, while stronger inflation prints or softening employment data represent the primary scenarios that could introduce modest tightening or easing odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$7,629,300Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, alongside a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% during the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Recent April minutes and market-implied pricing reflect a data-dependent stance with limited near-term policy shifts, consistent with the 92.5% probability assigned to no change. The June 16-17 meeting with updated projections could refine this outlook, while stronger inflation prints or softening employment data represent the primary scenarios that could introduce modest tightening or easing odds.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$7,629,300Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated April 2026 CPI readings at 3.8% year-over-year, driven by energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, alongside a resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment, have anchored trader expectations for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% during the July 28-29 FOMC meeting. Recent April minutes and market-implied pricing reflect a data-dependent stance with limited near-term policy shifts, consistent with the 92.5% probability assigned to no change. The June 16-17 meeting with updated projections could refine this outlook, while stronger inflation prints or softening employment data represent the primary scenarios that could introduce modest tightening or easing odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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