Market-implied odds of 93.5% for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflect the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. April 2026 CPI printed at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy prices, while May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held steady near 4.3%, keeping the federal funds rate target range anchored at 3.50%-3.75%. Recent FOMC communications and April minutes underscore upside inflation risks and a preference for patience before any adjustment, aligning with trader consensus that monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive. A materially softer June CPI release or sharper deterioration in employment data could introduce modest volatility, though such outcomes appear unlikely to shift the policy path before the meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 94%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 4.0%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.7%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$8,199,302 Объем
$8,199,302 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
2%
Без изменений
94%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
4%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 94%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 4.0%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.7%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$8,199,302 Объем
$8,199,302 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$1,057,561 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$848,829 Объем
2%
Без изменений
$1,090,442 Объем
94%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$3,862,499 Объем
4%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$1,341,304 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds of 93.5% for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflect the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. April 2026 CPI printed at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy prices, while May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held steady near 4.3%, keeping the federal funds rate target range anchored at 3.50%-3.75%. Recent FOMC communications and April minutes underscore upside inflation risks and a preference for patience before any adjustment, aligning with trader consensus that monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive. A materially softer June CPI release or sharper deterioration in employment data could introduce modest volatility, though such outcomes appear unlikely to shift the policy path before the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$8,199,302Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds of 93.5% for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflect the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. April 2026 CPI printed at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy prices, while May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held steady near 4.3%, keeping the federal funds rate target range anchored at 3.50%-3.75%. Recent FOMC communications and April minutes underscore upside inflation risks and a preference for patience before any adjustment, aligning with trader consensus that monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive. A materially softer June CPI release or sharper deterioration in employment data could introduce modest volatility, though such outcomes appear unlikely to shift the policy path before the meeting.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$8,199,302Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds of 93.5% for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting reflect the Federal Reserve’s data-dependent stance amid persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market. April 2026 CPI printed at 3.8% year-over-year, fueled by energy prices, while May nonfarm payrolls added 172,000 jobs and unemployment held steady near 4.3%, keeping the federal funds rate target range anchored at 3.50%-3.75%. Recent FOMC communications and April minutes underscore upside inflation risks and a preference for patience before any adjustment, aligning with trader consensus that monetary policy remains appropriately restrictive. A materially softer June CPI release or sharper deterioration in employment data could introduce modest volatility, though such outcomes appear unlikely to shift the policy path before the meeting.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы