Elevated inflation readings, including core CPI near 2.6% through March 2026 and headline pressures from energy prices, combined with the Federal Reserve’s April 28-29 FOMC statement and minutes highlighting risks of persistent above-target inflation, underpin the 93.5% market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 meeting. Officials signaled that additional policy firming could become appropriate if price pressures fail to moderate, while the labor market remains resilient with stable unemployment near 4.3%. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering and upcoming inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce the hold or introduce modest volatility if data deviate sharply from expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 93%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 5.1%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.4%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$8,511,884 Объем
$8,511,884 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
1%
Без изменений
93%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
5%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 93%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 5.1%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.4%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$8,511,884 Объем
$8,511,884 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$1,115,942 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$891,768 Объем
1%
Без изменений
$1,239,199 Объем
93%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$3,914,069 Объем
5%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$1,425,593 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, including core CPI near 2.6% through March 2026 and headline pressures from energy prices, combined with the Federal Reserve’s April 28-29 FOMC statement and minutes highlighting risks of persistent above-target inflation, underpin the 93.5% market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 meeting. Officials signaled that additional policy firming could become appropriate if price pressures fail to moderate, while the labor market remains resilient with stable unemployment near 4.3%. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering and upcoming inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce the hold or introduce modest volatility if data deviate sharply from expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$8,511,884Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, including core CPI near 2.6% through March 2026 and headline pressures from energy prices, combined with the Federal Reserve’s April 28-29 FOMC statement and minutes highlighting risks of persistent above-target inflation, underpin the 93.5% market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 meeting. Officials signaled that additional policy firming could become appropriate if price pressures fail to moderate, while the labor market remains resilient with stable unemployment near 4.3%. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering and upcoming inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce the hold or introduce modest volatility if data deviate sharply from expectations.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$8,511,884Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, including core CPI near 2.6% through March 2026 and headline pressures from energy prices, combined with the Federal Reserve’s April 28-29 FOMC statement and minutes highlighting risks of persistent above-target inflation, underpin the 93.5% market-implied odds of no change at the July 28-29 meeting. Officials signaled that additional policy firming could become appropriate if price pressures fail to moderate, while the labor market remains resilient with stable unemployment near 4.3%. The June 16-17 FOMC gathering and upcoming inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce the hold or introduce modest volatility if data deviate sharply from expectations.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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