Strong trader consensus for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with a 93.5% implied probability, reflects the Federal Reserve’s current 3.50-3.75% target range and persistent inflation above the 2% objective. April 2026 CPI readings near 3.8% year-over-year, combined with a stabilized labor market, have shifted expectations away from easing, consistent with FOMC minutes highlighting potential policy firming if price pressures endure. Markets price in a hold through the June 16-17 meeting and into July, with only modest odds attached to a 25-basis-point move in either direction. Key swing factors include the June inflation print, employment data, and any signals from incoming leadership following Chair Powell’s term end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 94%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 4.9%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.6%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$8,276,430 Объем
$8,276,430 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
2%
Без изменений
94%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
5%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 94%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 4.9%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.6%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$8,276,430 Объем
$8,276,430 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$1,067,388 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$857,237 Объем
2%
Без изменений
$1,098,592 Объем
94%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$3,883,461 Объем
5%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$1,369,883 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong trader consensus for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with a 93.5% implied probability, reflects the Federal Reserve’s current 3.50-3.75% target range and persistent inflation above the 2% objective. April 2026 CPI readings near 3.8% year-over-year, combined with a stabilized labor market, have shifted expectations away from easing, consistent with FOMC minutes highlighting potential policy firming if price pressures endure. Markets price in a hold through the June 16-17 meeting and into July, with only modest odds attached to a 25-basis-point move in either direction. Key swing factors include the June inflation print, employment data, and any signals from incoming leadership following Chair Powell’s term end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$8,276,430Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Strong trader consensus for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with a 93.5% implied probability, reflects the Federal Reserve’s current 3.50-3.75% target range and persistent inflation above the 2% objective. April 2026 CPI readings near 3.8% year-over-year, combined with a stabilized labor market, have shifted expectations away from easing, consistent with FOMC minutes highlighting potential policy firming if price pressures endure. Markets price in a hold through the June 16-17 meeting and into July, with only modest odds attached to a 25-basis-point move in either direction. Key swing factors include the June inflation print, employment data, and any signals from incoming leadership following Chair Powell’s term end.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$8,276,430Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong trader consensus for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, with a 93.5% implied probability, reflects the Federal Reserve’s current 3.50-3.75% target range and persistent inflation above the 2% objective. April 2026 CPI readings near 3.8% year-over-year, combined with a stabilized labor market, have shifted expectations away from easing, consistent with FOMC minutes highlighting potential policy firming if price pressures endure. Markets price in a hold through the June 16-17 meeting and into July, with only modest odds attached to a 25-basis-point move in either direction. Key swing factors include the June inflation print, employment data, and any signals from incoming leadership following Chair Powell’s term end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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