Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the committee’s recent communications and incoming data that favor maintaining the current 3.50-3.75% target range. April core PCE inflation held near 3.3% year-over-year amid elevated commodity prices, while the unemployment rate remained stable around 4.3-4.4% with modest job gains. These conditions have kept market-implied rate paths aligned with official guidance emphasizing patience, as participants await clearer evidence that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% objective. A material downside surprise in June employment or CPI figures, or dovish signals from incoming leadership, could still shift expectations toward a 25 basis point adjustment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 94%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 4.2%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.6%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$8,166,849 Объем
$8,166,849 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
2%
Без изменений
94%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
4%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 94%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 4.2%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.6%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$8,166,849 Объем
$8,166,849 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$1,054,813 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$840,444 Объем
2%
Без изменений
$1,080,308 Объем
94%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$3,859,458 Объем
4%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$1,332,015 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the committee’s recent communications and incoming data that favor maintaining the current 3.50-3.75% target range. April core PCE inflation held near 3.3% year-over-year amid elevated commodity prices, while the unemployment rate remained stable around 4.3-4.4% with modest job gains. These conditions have kept market-implied rate paths aligned with official guidance emphasizing patience, as participants await clearer evidence that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% objective. A material downside surprise in June employment or CPI figures, or dovish signals from incoming leadership, could still shift expectations toward a 25 basis point adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$8,166,849Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the committee’s recent communications and incoming data that favor maintaining the current 3.50-3.75% target range. April core PCE inflation held near 3.3% year-over-year amid elevated commodity prices, while the unemployment rate remained stable around 4.3-4.4% with modest job gains. These conditions have kept market-implied rate paths aligned with official guidance emphasizing patience, as participants await clearer evidence that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% objective. A material downside surprise in June employment or CPI figures, or dovish signals from incoming leadership, could still shift expectations toward a 25 basis point adjustment.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$8,166,849Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign a 93.5% implied probability to no change in the federal funds rate at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting the committee’s recent communications and incoming data that favor maintaining the current 3.50-3.75% target range. April core PCE inflation held near 3.3% year-over-year amid elevated commodity prices, while the unemployment rate remained stable around 4.3-4.4% with modest job gains. These conditions have kept market-implied rate paths aligned with official guidance emphasizing patience, as participants await clearer evidence that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% objective. A material downside surprise in June employment or CPI figures, or dovish signals from incoming leadership, could still shift expectations toward a 25 basis point adjustment.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы