Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, fueled by energy prices amid the Iran-related oil shock, combined with a resilient May jobs report adding 172,000 positions and holding unemployment at 4.3%, has anchored market-implied odds for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting near 93.5%. Traders interpret these figures as sustaining upside risks to inflation above the Fed’s target, consistent with recent central bank communications prioritizing data dependence over near-term easing from the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds range. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust this consensus, though a 25 basis point move in either direction remains priced below 5%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБез изменений 94%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 4.3%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.6%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$8,249,384 Объем
$8,249,384 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
2%
Без изменений
94%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
4%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Без изменений 94%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 4.3%
Снижение на 25 б.п. 1.6%
Снижение на 50+ б.п. <1%
$8,249,384 Объем
$8,249,384 Объем
29 июл. 2026 г.
Снижение на 50+ б.п.
$1,062,256 Объем
1%
Снижение на 25 б.п.
$851,991 Объем
2%
Без изменений
$1,096,189 Объем
94%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$3,873,520 Объем
4%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$1,365,467 Объем
<1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, fueled by energy prices amid the Iran-related oil shock, combined with a resilient May jobs report adding 172,000 positions and holding unemployment at 4.3%, has anchored market-implied odds for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting near 93.5%. Traders interpret these figures as sustaining upside risks to inflation above the Fed’s target, consistent with recent central bank communications prioritizing data dependence over near-term easing from the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds range. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust this consensus, though a 25 basis point move in either direction remains priced below 5%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Объем
$8,249,384Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, fueled by energy prices amid the Iran-related oil shock, combined with a resilient May jobs report adding 172,000 positions and holding unemployment at 4.3%, has anchored market-implied odds for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting near 93.5%. Traders interpret these figures as sustaining upside risks to inflation above the Fed’s target, consistent with recent central bank communications prioritizing data dependence over near-term easing from the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds range. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust this consensus, though a 25 basis point move in either direction remains priced below 5%.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Объем
$8,249,384Дата окончания
29 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, fueled by energy prices amid the Iran-related oil shock, combined with a resilient May jobs report adding 172,000 positions and holding unemployment at 4.3%, has anchored market-implied odds for no change at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting near 93.5%. Traders interpret these figures as sustaining upside risks to inflation above the Fed’s target, consistent with recent central bank communications prioritizing data dependence over near-term easing from the current 3.50-3.75% federal funds range. The upcoming May CPI release on June 10 and the June 16-17 FOMC decision represent key near-term catalysts that could reinforce or modestly adjust this consensus, though a 25 basis point move in either direction remains priced below 5%.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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