Recent stronger-than-expected UK GDP prints, including a 0.4% July monthly gain that exceeded forecasts and lifted year-over-year growth to 1.6%, have reinforced the 1-2% band for full-year 2026 expansion. The first-half advance of 1%—the fastest among G7 peers—combined with Bank of England and IMF central projections near 1.1% and 1.0% respectively, underpins the 88.6% implied probability. AI-driven services momentum has offset some drag from elevated energy prices tied to the US-Iran conflict, while analysts flag potential minor upward forecast revisions. Key upcoming catalysts include further ONS releases and any seasonal-adjustment revisions that could influence the final annual outturn.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено1–2% 88.6%
0–1% 10%
3-4% 1.4%
<0 1.3%
$83,507 Объем
$83,507 Объем
11 фев. 2027 г.
<0
1%
0–1%
10%
1–2%
89%
2-3%
1%
3-4%
1%
4–5%
<1%
5%+
<1%
1–2% 88.6%
0–1% 10%
3-4% 1.4%
<0 1.3%
$83,507 Объем
$83,507 Объем
11 фев. 2027 г.
<0
$11,971 Объем
1%
0–1%
$20,172 Объем
10%
1–2%
$30,118 Объем
89%
2-3%
$4,731 Объем
1%
3-4%
$3,663 Объем
1%
4–5%
$8,810 Объем
<1%
5%+
$4,041 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent stronger-than-expected UK GDP prints, including a 0.4% July monthly gain that exceeded forecasts and lifted year-over-year growth to 1.6%, have reinforced the 1-2% band for full-year 2026 expansion. The first-half advance of 1%—the fastest among G7 peers—combined with Bank of England and IMF central projections near 1.1% and 1.0% respectively, underpins the 88.6% implied probability. AI-driven services momentum has offset some drag from elevated energy prices tied to the US-Iran conflict, while analysts flag potential minor upward forecast revisions. Key upcoming catalysts include further ONS releases and any seasonal-adjustment revisions that could influence the final annual outturn.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Объем
$83,507Дата окончания
12 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent stronger-than-expected UK GDP prints, including a 0.4% July monthly gain that exceeded forecasts and lifted year-over-year growth to 1.6%, have reinforced the 1-2% band for full-year 2026 expansion. The first-half advance of 1%—the fastest among G7 peers—combined with Bank of England and IMF central projections near 1.1% and 1.0% respectively, underpins the 88.6% implied probability. AI-driven services momentum has offset some drag from elevated energy prices tied to the US-Iran conflict, while analysts flag potential minor upward forecast revisions. Key upcoming catalysts include further ONS releases and any seasonal-adjustment revisions that could influence the final annual outturn.
This market will resolve according to the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 (% change) in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for October-December (Q4) of 2026, scheduled for February 12, 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
The estimate of UK real GDP across the year of 2026 is an estimate of the rate at which real GDP changed, on average, throughout the year of 2026. The relevant figure may be found in “Table 1: Headline national accounts indicators for the UK” under “GDP (Chained Volume Measures)” for the relevant year, or elsewhere in the release.
If no data for the estimate of UK real gross domestic product (GDP) across the year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the rate at which UK real gross domestic product (GDP) changed in Q4 compared with the same quarter of the previous year. If neither figure is released by the date the next quarter's GDP first quarterly estimate is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on quarterly data (compared to the same quarter in the previous year) from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$83,507Дата окончания
12 фев. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 22, 2026, 10:27 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...Recent stronger-than-expected UK GDP prints, including a 0.4% July monthly gain that exceeded forecasts and lifted year-over-year growth to 1.6%, have reinforced the 1-2% band for full-year 2026 expansion. The first-half advance of 1%—the fastest among G7 peers—combined with Bank of England and IMF central projections near 1.1% and 1.0% respectively, underpins the 88.6% implied probability. AI-driven services momentum has offset some drag from elevated energy prices tied to the US-Iran conflict, while analysts flag potential minor upward forecast revisions. Key upcoming catalysts include further ONS releases and any seasonal-adjustment revisions that could influence the final annual outturn.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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