China's 2026 GDP growth market reflects broad trader consensus around the 4.0–5.0% range, consistent with official targets of 4.5–5.0% and major forecasts from Goldman Sachs (4.8%), the IMF (4.6%), and the World Bank (4.4%). First-half data showed 4.7% expansion overall but slowed to 4.3% in Q2 amid weak domestic consumption, property sector drag, and subdued private investment, offset by resilient exports in high-tech and AI-related goods plus targeted fiscal measures. The 15th Five-Year Plan and midyear policy signals emphasize incremental support for strategic sectors and demand without broad stimulus, while external risks like trade tensions and global demand shifts remain contained. This positioning aligns with historical base rates for China's growth moderation and the wisdom of crowds pricing in continued export strength alongside structural headwinds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено4,0–5,0% 90%
5,0–6,0% 5.9%
3,0–4,0% 1.1%
8,0–9,0% 1.0%
$900,187 Объем
$900,187 Объем
30 янв. 2027 г.
<1,0%
<1%
1,0–2,0%
<1%
2,0–3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0%
1%
4,0–5,0%
90%
5,0–6,0%
6%
6,0–7,0%
<1%
7,0–8,0%
<1%
8,0–9,0%
1%
9,0%+
1%
4,0–5,0% 90%
5,0–6,0% 5.9%
3,0–4,0% 1.1%
8,0–9,0% 1.0%
$900,187 Объем
$900,187 Объем
30 янв. 2027 г.
<1,0%
$68,058 Объем
<1%
1,0–2,0%
$75,379 Объем
<1%
2,0–3,0%
$45,830 Объем
<1%
3,0–4,0%
$81,476 Объем
1%
4,0–5,0%
$223,029 Объем
90%
5,0–6,0%
$80,873 Объем
6%
6,0–7,0%
$87,943 Объем
<1%
7,0–8,0%
$65,353 Объем
<1%
8,0–9,0%
$54,761 Объем
1%
9,0%+
$117,484 Объем
1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's 2026 GDP growth market reflects broad trader consensus around the 4.0–5.0% range, consistent with official targets of 4.5–5.0% and major forecasts from Goldman Sachs (4.8%), the IMF (4.6%), and the World Bank (4.4%). First-half data showed 4.7% expansion overall but slowed to 4.3% in Q2 amid weak domestic consumption, property sector drag, and subdued private investment, offset by resilient exports in high-tech and AI-related goods plus targeted fiscal measures. The 15th Five-Year Plan and midyear policy signals emphasize incremental support for strategic sectors and demand without broad stimulus, while external risks like trade tensions and global demand shifts remain contained. This positioning aligns with historical base rates for China's growth moderation and the wisdom of crowds pricing in continued export strength alongside structural headwinds.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Объем
$900,187Дата окончания
31 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China's 2026 GDP growth market reflects broad trader consensus around the 4.0–5.0% range, consistent with official targets of 4.5–5.0% and major forecasts from Goldman Sachs (4.8%), the IMF (4.6%), and the World Bank (4.4%). First-half data showed 4.7% expansion overall but slowed to 4.3% in Q2 amid weak domestic consumption, property sector drag, and subdued private investment, offset by resilient exports in high-tech and AI-related goods plus targeted fiscal measures. The 15th Five-Year Plan and midyear policy signals emphasize incremental support for strategic sectors and demand without broad stimulus, while external risks like trade tensions and global demand shifts remain contained. This positioning aligns with historical base rates for China's growth moderation and the wisdom of crowds pricing in continued export strength alongside structural headwinds.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$900,187Дата окончания
31 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x2F5e3684c...China's 2026 GDP growth market reflects broad trader consensus around the 4.0–5.0% range, consistent with official targets of 4.5–5.0% and major forecasts from Goldman Sachs (4.8%), the IMF (4.6%), and the World Bank (4.4%). First-half data showed 4.7% expansion overall but slowed to 4.3% in Q2 amid weak domestic consumption, property sector drag, and subdued private investment, offset by resilient exports in high-tech and AI-related goods plus targeted fiscal measures. The 15th Five-Year Plan and midyear policy signals emphasize incremental support for strategic sectors and demand without broad stimulus, while external risks like trade tensions and global demand shifts remain contained. This positioning aligns with historical base rates for China's growth moderation and the wisdom of crowds pricing in continued export strength alongside structural headwinds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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