Recent Q2 2026 euro area GDP expansion of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding consensus, has not offset broader downward revisions to full-year forecasts, now clustered around 0.8-1.0% from the ECB, OECD, and IMF amid elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and persistent inflation near 3%. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability to the 0-1.0% bucket, reflecting subdued domestic demand, weak PMI readings signaling contraction risks, and ECB policy holding the deposit facility near 2.25% with limited room for easing. Key near-term catalysts include August PMI releases, industrial production data, and the September ECB meeting, which could influence the 1.0-2.0% outcome's 24.5% share if geopolitical pressures ease faster than expected.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено0-1,0% 66.7%
1,0–2,0% 25%
<0% 4.2%
4,0-5,0% <1%
$28,816 Объем
$28,816 Объем
31 янв. 2027 г.
<0%
4%
0-1,0%
67%
1,0–2,0%
25%
2,0-3,0%
<1%
3,0–4,0%
<1%
4,0-5,0%
1%
5,0-6,0%
<1%
6,0-7,0%
1%
7,0%+
<1%
0-1,0% 66.7%
1,0–2,0% 25%
<0% 4.2%
4,0-5,0% <1%
$28,816 Объем
$28,816 Объем
31 янв. 2027 г.
<0%
$1,615 Объем
4%
0-1,0%
$10,739 Объем
67%
1,0–2,0%
$6,957 Объем
25%
2,0-3,0%
$1,121 Объем
<1%
3,0–4,0%
$1,027 Объем
<1%
4,0-5,0%
$2,108 Объем
1%
5,0-6,0%
$1,127 Объем
<1%
6,0-7,0%
$2,544 Объем
1%
7,0%+
$1,579 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 euro area GDP expansion of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding consensus, has not offset broader downward revisions to full-year forecasts, now clustered around 0.8-1.0% from the ECB, OECD, and IMF amid elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and persistent inflation near 3%. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability to the 0-1.0% bucket, reflecting subdued domestic demand, weak PMI readings signaling contraction risks, and ECB policy holding the deposit facility near 2.25% with limited room for easing. Key near-term catalysts include August PMI releases, industrial production data, and the September ECB meeting, which could influence the 1.0-2.0% outcome's 24.5% share if geopolitical pressures ease faster than expected.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Объем
$28,816Дата окончания
31 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 euro area GDP expansion of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding consensus, has not offset broader downward revisions to full-year forecasts, now clustered around 0.8-1.0% from the ECB, OECD, and IMF amid elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and persistent inflation near 3%. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability to the 0-1.0% bucket, reflecting subdued domestic demand, weak PMI readings signaling contraction risks, and ECB policy holding the deposit facility near 2.25% with limited room for easing. Key near-term catalysts include August PMI releases, industrial production data, and the September ECB meeting, which could influence the 1.0-2.0% outcome's 24.5% share if geopolitical pressures ease faster than expected.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$28,816Дата окончания
31 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q2 2026 euro area GDP expansion of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, exceeding consensus, has not offset broader downward revisions to full-year forecasts, now clustered around 0.8-1.0% from the ECB, OECD, and IMF amid elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions and persistent inflation near 3%. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability to the 0-1.0% bucket, reflecting subdued domestic demand, weak PMI readings signaling contraction risks, and ECB policy holding the deposit facility near 2.25% with limited room for easing. Key near-term catalysts include August PMI releases, industrial production data, and the September ECB meeting, which could influence the 1.0-2.0% outcome's 24.5% share if geopolitical pressures ease faster than expected.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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