Mexico’s Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth market reflects trader consensus around a moderate expansion, with the 1.5–2.0% bin holding the highest implied probability at 45.5%. The Q2 2026 rebound of 1.4% quarter-over-quarter and 2.1% year-over-year lifted full-year forecasts, prompting Banxico to raise its 2026 projection to 1.5% (range 1.0–2.0%) and Hacienda to target 1–2% overall, citing resilient exports and nearshoring alongside a anticipated H2 slowdown. Weak private investment, subdued consumption, and USMCA review uncertainty continue to cap momentum, while inflation near 3.26% and the policy rate held at 6.5% support a cautious stance. Incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand data through September will shape the October 30 release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено1.5-2.0% 51%
2.5-3.0% 25%
1.0-1.5% 12.7%
2.0-2.5% 11%
$27,914 Объем
$27,914 Объем
30 окт. 2026 г.
<0.5%
1%
0.5-1.0%
1%
1.0-1.5%
13%
1.5-2.0%
51%
2.0-2.5%
11%
2.5-3.0%
25%
3.0-3.5%
1%
3.5%+
4%
1.5-2.0% 51%
2.5-3.0% 25%
1.0-1.5% 12.7%
2.0-2.5% 11%
$27,914 Объем
$27,914 Объем
30 окт. 2026 г.
<0.5%
$500 Объем
1%
0.5-1.0%
$380 Объем
1%
1.0-1.5%
$3,541 Объем
13%
1.5-2.0%
$9,020 Объем
51%
2.0-2.5%
$12,298 Объем
11%
2.5-3.0%
$1,252 Объем
25%
3.0-3.5%
$459 Объем
1%
3.5%+
$465 Объем
4%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth market reflects trader consensus around a moderate expansion, with the 1.5–2.0% bin holding the highest implied probability at 45.5%. The Q2 2026 rebound of 1.4% quarter-over-quarter and 2.1% year-over-year lifted full-year forecasts, prompting Banxico to raise its 2026 projection to 1.5% (range 1.0–2.0%) and Hacienda to target 1–2% overall, citing resilient exports and nearshoring alongside a anticipated H2 slowdown. Weak private investment, subdued consumption, and USMCA review uncertainty continue to cap momentum, while inflation near 3.26% and the policy rate held at 6.5% support a cautious stance. Incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand data through September will shape the October 30 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Объем
$27,914Дата окончания
30 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Mexico’s Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth market reflects trader consensus around a moderate expansion, with the 1.5–2.0% bin holding the highest implied probability at 45.5%. The Q2 2026 rebound of 1.4% quarter-over-quarter and 2.1% year-over-year lifted full-year forecasts, prompting Banxico to raise its 2026 projection to 1.5% (range 1.0–2.0%) and Hacienda to target 1–2% overall, citing resilient exports and nearshoring alongside a anticipated H2 slowdown. Weak private investment, subdued consumption, and USMCA review uncertainty continue to cap momentum, while inflation near 3.26% and the policy rate held at 6.5% support a cautious stance. Incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand data through September will shape the October 30 release.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$27,914Дата окончания
30 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Mexico’s Q3 2026 year-over-year GDP growth market reflects trader consensus around a moderate expansion, with the 1.5–2.0% bin holding the highest implied probability at 45.5%. The Q2 2026 rebound of 1.4% quarter-over-quarter and 2.1% year-over-year lifted full-year forecasts, prompting Banxico to raise its 2026 projection to 1.5% (range 1.0–2.0%) and Hacienda to target 1–2% overall, citing resilient exports and nearshoring alongside a anticipated H2 slowdown. Weak private investment, subdued consumption, and USMCA review uncertainty continue to cap momentum, while inflation near 3.26% and the policy rate held at 6.5% support a cautious stance. Incoming industrial production, retail sales, and external demand data through September will shape the October 30 release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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