Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed a 1.5% quarter-on-quarter rebound from the prior contraction, reflecting broad-based gains in services, industry, and primary sectors amid gradual monetary easing by Banxico. However, 2026 full-year forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and private analysts cluster around 1.2-1.6%, constrained by subdued domestic demand, elevated political and USMCA-related uncertainty weighing on private investment, and moderating labor market momentum. With Q3 just underway, evenly matched market-implied odds across growth buckets highlight limited visibility into near-term catalysts such as July industrial production, inflation prints, and external demand from the U.S. economy. These factors sustain competitive dynamics, where stronger consumption or export data could shift sentiment toward the 1.0-2.0% range while persistent headwinds favor sub-1% outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено<0.5% 38%
0.5-1.0% 38%
1.0-1.5% 38%
1.5-2.0% 38%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 окт. 2026 г.
<0.5%
38%
0.5-1.0%
38%
1.0-1.5%
38%
1.5-2.0%
38%
2.0-2.5%
38%
2.5-3.0%
38%
3.0-3.5%
38%
3.5%+
38%
<0.5% 38%
0.5-1.0% 38%
1.0-1.5% 38%
1.5-2.0% 38%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 окт. 2026 г.
<0.5%
$1 Объем
38%
0.5-1.0%
$0 Объем
38%
1.0-1.5%
$0 Объем
38%
1.5-2.0%
$0 Объем
38%
2.0-2.5%
$0 Объем
38%
2.5-3.0%
$0 Объем
38%
3.0-3.5%
$0 Объем
38%
3.5%+
$0 Объем
38%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed a 1.5% quarter-on-quarter rebound from the prior contraction, reflecting broad-based gains in services, industry, and primary sectors amid gradual monetary easing by Banxico. However, 2026 full-year forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and private analysts cluster around 1.2-1.6%, constrained by subdued domestic demand, elevated political and USMCA-related uncertainty weighing on private investment, and moderating labor market momentum. With Q3 just underway, evenly matched market-implied odds across growth buckets highlight limited visibility into near-term catalysts such as July industrial production, inflation prints, and external demand from the U.S. economy. These factors sustain competitive dynamics, where stronger consumption or export data could shift sentiment toward the 1.0-2.0% range while persistent headwinds favor sub-1% outcomes.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Объем
$1Дата окончания
30 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed a 1.5% quarter-on-quarter rebound from the prior contraction, reflecting broad-based gains in services, industry, and primary sectors amid gradual monetary easing by Banxico. However, 2026 full-year forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and private analysts cluster around 1.2-1.6%, constrained by subdued domestic demand, elevated political and USMCA-related uncertainty weighing on private investment, and moderating labor market momentum. With Q3 just underway, evenly matched market-implied odds across growth buckets highlight limited visibility into near-term catalysts such as July industrial production, inflation prints, and external demand from the U.S. economy. These factors sustain competitive dynamics, where stronger consumption or export data could shift sentiment toward the 1.0-2.0% range while persistent headwinds favor sub-1% outcomes.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on October 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$1Дата окончания
30 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data showed a 1.5% quarter-on-quarter rebound from the prior contraction, reflecting broad-based gains in services, industry, and primary sectors amid gradual monetary easing by Banxico. However, 2026 full-year forecasts from the IMF, OECD, and private analysts cluster around 1.2-1.6%, constrained by subdued domestic demand, elevated political and USMCA-related uncertainty weighing on private investment, and moderating labor market momentum. With Q3 just underway, evenly matched market-implied odds across growth buckets highlight limited visibility into near-term catalysts such as July industrial production, inflation prints, and external demand from the U.S. economy. These factors sustain competitive dynamics, where stronger consumption or export data could shift sentiment toward the 1.0-2.0% range while persistent headwinds favor sub-1% outcomes.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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