Recent August inflation of 1.7% month-over-month, the lowest in 14 months, anchors trader expectations for September near 1.7–2.0%, producing the near-even split between the 1.6–1.8% and 1.9–2.1% bins. Sustained fiscal surpluses, a crawling-peg exchange rate, and moderating inertia have supported the broader disinflation trend, with annual inflation falling to 33.5% and core measures stable around 1.8%. Seasonal pressures from food, regulated prices, and winter holidays remain key swing factors that could push the print toward either leading outcome. The Central Bank’s REM survey and private forecasts cluster around 1.8%, while the October data release will resolve the market.