Recent August CPI data showed a rebound to 0.8% year-on-year, fueled by higher global energy and commodity prices amid Middle East supply risks, with transport costs contributing notably while food prices stayed subdued. Persistent weakness in domestic demand, reflected in soft core readings near 1% and ongoing deflationary pressures in housing and certain consumer goods, limits broader pass-through and keeps September expectations clustered in the 0.5–1.0% range. Traders weigh the durability of imported cost pressures against policy support for consumption and seasonal factors, producing closely matched probabilities that could shift with incoming data on oil prices, retail sales, or producer price trends before the mid-October release.