Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no arrest for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei at 98.5%, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports, DOJ announcements, indictments, or investigations targeting him in recent months. Ongoing civil disputes with the Pentagon over a "supply chain risk" designation—challenged in court with a federal appeals rejection on April 9—remain regulatory, not criminal, as evidenced by Amodei's April 17 White House meeting on AI collaboration. No leaks, charges, or law enforcement actions have surfaced despite public tensions, including Defense Secretary Hegseth's criticisms. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen scandals, federal probes into AI ethics, or executive actions, though structural barriers to sudden arrests maintain high confidence in resolution as "No."
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
$158,966 Объем
$158,966 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
Да
$158,966 Объем
$158,966 Объем
30 июн. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no arrest for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei at 98.5%, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports, DOJ announcements, indictments, or investigations targeting him in recent months. Ongoing civil disputes with the Pentagon over a "supply chain risk" designation—challenged in court with a federal appeals rejection on April 9—remain regulatory, not criminal, as evidenced by Amodei's April 17 White House meeting on AI collaboration. No leaks, charges, or law enforcement actions have surfaced despite public tensions, including Defense Secretary Hegseth's criticisms. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen scandals, federal probes into AI ethics, or executive actions, though structural barriers to sudden arrests maintain high confidence in resolution as "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
Объем
$158,966Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no arrest for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei at 98.5%, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports, DOJ announcements, indictments, or investigations targeting him in recent months. Ongoing civil disputes with the Pentagon over a "supply chain risk" designation—challenged in court with a federal appeals rejection on April 9—remain regulatory, not criminal, as evidenced by Amodei's April 17 White House meeting on AI collaboration. No leaks, charges, or law enforcement actions have surfaced despite public tensions, including Defense Secretary Hegseth's criticisms. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen scandals, federal probes into AI ethics, or executive actions, though structural barriers to sudden arrests maintain high confidence in resolution as "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Dario Amodei is arrested or detained by law enforcement by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$158,966Дата окончания
30 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Feb 27, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors no arrest for Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei at 98.5%, driven by the complete absence of any credible reports, DOJ announcements, indictments, or investigations targeting him in recent months. Ongoing civil disputes with the Pentagon over a "supply chain risk" designation—challenged in court with a federal appeals rejection on April 9—remain regulatory, not criminal, as evidenced by Amodei's April 17 White House meeting on AI collaboration. No leaks, charges, or law enforcement actions have surfaced despite public tensions, including Defense Secretary Hegseth's criticisms. Realistic shifts could stem from unforeseen scandals, federal probes into AI ethics, or executive actions, though structural barriers to sudden arrests maintain high confidence in resolution as "No."
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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