Apple faces steep regulatory and political barriers to sourcing DRAM from China’s CXMT in 2026, driving the 75.5% market-implied odds against any purchase. The company has lobbied the Trump administration since June for assurances that CXMT, already on the Pentagon’s 1260H military-ties list, will avoid the stricter Commerce Entity List, yet no clearance has materialized amid ongoing U.S.-China tensions. While Apple has tested CXMT LPDDR5X and LPDDR6 parts for potential use in China-bound iPhones and MacBooks, capacity constraints—CXMT’s fabs are nearly fully booked through 2027—limit volumes to marginal volumes at best. Traders weigh these frictions against established suppliers and precedent from prior blocked deals, with any resolution likely hinging on Entity List decisions or explicit White House approval before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли Apple покупать чипы памяти CXMT в 2026 году?
Будет ли Apple покупать чипы памяти CXMT в 2026 году?
Да
25% вероятность
$21,410 Объем
$21,410 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
25% вероятность
$21,410 Объем
$21,410 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple faces steep regulatory and political barriers to sourcing DRAM from China’s CXMT in 2026, driving the 75.5% market-implied odds against any purchase. The company has lobbied the Trump administration since June for assurances that CXMT, already on the Pentagon’s 1260H military-ties list, will avoid the stricter Commerce Entity List, yet no clearance has materialized amid ongoing U.S.-China tensions. While Apple has tested CXMT LPDDR5X and LPDDR6 parts for potential use in China-bound iPhones and MacBooks, capacity constraints—CXMT’s fabs are nearly fully booked through 2027—limit volumes to marginal volumes at best. Traders weigh these frictions against established suppliers and precedent from prior blocked deals, with any resolution likely hinging on Entity List decisions or explicit White House approval before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ET
Объем
$21,410Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Apple faces steep regulatory and political barriers to sourcing DRAM from China’s CXMT in 2026, driving the 75.5% market-implied odds against any purchase. The company has lobbied the Trump administration since June for assurances that CXMT, already on the Pentagon’s 1260H military-ties list, will avoid the stricter Commerce Entity List, yet no clearance has materialized amid ongoing U.S.-China tensions. While Apple has tested CXMT LPDDR5X and LPDDR6 parts for potential use in China-bound iPhones and MacBooks, capacity constraints—CXMT’s fabs are nearly fully booked through 2027—limit volumes to marginal volumes at best. Traders weigh these frictions against established suppliers and precedent from prior blocked deals, with any resolution likely hinging on Entity List decisions or explicit White House approval before year-end.
According to the Financial Times, Apple has sought U.S. government approval to purchase memory chips from ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT). You can read more about that here: https://www.ft.com/content/d72a25e2-7bde-4aa9-bd8d-0c4f3d6cb2cb?syn-25a6b1a6=1.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple or an official representative of the company announces that it will use, purchase, or source memory chips from CXMT by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying announcement made within this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether or when CXMT subsequently supplies Apple.
This market will also resolve to "Yes" if it is otherwise confirmed that Apple purchased, agreed to purchase, entered into a supply agreement for, or began sourcing any products or components from CXMT by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Apple and/or its official representative; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$21,410Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 30, 2026, 1:20 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Apple faces steep regulatory and political barriers to sourcing DRAM from China’s CXMT in 2026, driving the 75.5% market-implied odds against any purchase. The company has lobbied the Trump administration since June for assurances that CXMT, already on the Pentagon’s 1260H military-ties list, will avoid the stricter Commerce Entity List, yet no clearance has materialized amid ongoing U.S.-China tensions. While Apple has tested CXMT LPDDR5X and LPDDR6 parts for potential use in China-bound iPhones and MacBooks, capacity constraints—CXMT’s fabs are nearly fully booked through 2027—limit volumes to marginal volumes at best. Traders weigh these frictions against established suppliers and precedent from prior blocked deals, with any resolution likely hinging on Entity List decisions or explicit White House approval before year-end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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