Apple’s active lobbying of the Trump administration for clearance to source LPDDR5X and DDR5 DRAM from blacklisted Chinese supplier ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) is the main driver behind the near-even 51% market-implied odds. Surging AI-driven memory prices have already forced Apple to raise Mac, iPad, and other hardware costs, prompting the company to seek assurances that CXMT will avoid the stricter Entity List while diversifying away from traditional suppliers like Samsung and SK Hynix. Geopolitical risks, Pentagon scrutiny over alleged military ties, and the absence of any finalized contract create offsetting uncertainty, even as CXMT’s expanding capacity and recent large deals elsewhere signal growing viability. Key near-term catalysts include the outcome of ongoing Commerce Department discussions, any Entity List updates, and Apple’s supply-chain disclosures ahead of 2026 product cycles.