OpenAI’s September 8, 2026 release of an analytical proof and public Lean formalization for a finite-time singularity in the Navier-Stokes equations, produced by an internal multi-agent system exceeding 10,000 concurrent instances, underpins the 91% market-implied odds against retraction. The verifiable artifact and absence of identified mathematical flaws have anchored trader consensus, even amid disputes over research priority and potential data use raised by external mathematicians. While independent peer review and Clay Mathematics Institute scrutiny through year-end could surface discrepancies capable of prompting a correction, the combination of formal checks and lack of errors to date sustains strong conviction that OpenAI will not retract the claimed result this year.