OpenAI’s recent pause of internal activities on its upcoming Astra model stems from preliminary evaluations showing strong agentic coding and cybersecurity performance that cannot rule out “Critical” capability levels, including autonomous vulnerability exploitation and cyberattacks from high-level goals. This safety-driven halt, announced around August 8–10 2026, requires enhanced security controls before resuming work and directly affects release timelines for any public benchmarks or arena evaluations. In the competitive landscape of large language models, Astra’s potential Text Arena debut would test it against established GPT variants and rivals on human-preference leaderboards focused on math, coding, and open-ended tasks, but the pause introduces uncertainty around development velocity and deployment readiness. Traders should monitor OpenAI’s next safety updates and benchmark disclosures for clarity on resolution criteria.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМодель Astra от OpenAI: дебют на текстовой арене?
1480+
72%
1490+
62%
1500+
53%
1510+
28%
1520+
13%
$1,744 Объем
1480+
72%
1490+
62%
1500+
53%
1510+
28%
1520+
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked “AutoEval” will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the “AutoEval” label will be considered.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Aug 13, 2026, 5:50 PM ET
Источник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the specified score in the Score column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
A model marked “AutoEval” will not be considered added to the leaderboard. Only scores displayed without the “AutoEval” label will be considered.
If multiple models are added to the leaderboard on the same calendar date (ET), the highest-scoring model will be used for resolution. Models added to the leaderboard on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the leaderboard is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which such a score becomes available on the leaderboard. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the leaderboard or if no qualifying model release occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Источник определения исхода
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s recent pause of internal activities on its upcoming Astra model stems from preliminary evaluations showing strong agentic coding and cybersecurity performance that cannot rule out “Critical” capability levels, including autonomous vulnerability exploitation and cyberattacks from high-level goals. This safety-driven halt, announced around August 8–10 2026, requires enhanced security controls before resuming work and directly affects release timelines for any public benchmarks or arena evaluations. In the competitive landscape of large language models, Astra’s potential Text Arena debut would test it against established GPT variants and rivals on human-preference leaderboards focused on math, coding, and open-ended tasks, but the pause introduces uncertainty around development velocity and deployment readiness. Traders should monitor OpenAI’s next safety updates and benchmark disclosures for clarity on resolution criteria.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено


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