Recent AI leaderboard shifts show Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants leading composite benchmarks such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSYS Arena Elo ratings, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol family holds top spots on coding and reasoning tests like SWE-bench and GPQA. xAI's Grok 4.6 refresh in mid-August narrowed gaps on agentic tasks at lower cost. Competitive pressure stems from rapid post-training updates, with performance converging among frontier labs and Chinese open-weight models like Qwen and DeepSeek closing in on quality at fraction of the price. Key catalysts ahead include expected September releases from OpenAI and Anthropic, Google's next Gemini iteration, and Meta's Llama updates, all of which could realign model rankings before year-end through new capability demonstrations or benchmark gains.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКакие компании будут иметь модель искусственного интеллекта №1 к 31 декабря?
Какие компании будут иметь модель искусственного интеллекта №1 к 31 декабря?
$119,071 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
OpenAI
36%
20%
Alibaba
13%
xAI
13%
Meta
12%
Moonshot
11%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Amazon
8%
Microsoft
8%
Baidu
7%
Meituan
6%
Mistral
3%
$119,071 Объем
OpenAI
$22,540 Объем
36%
$17,193 Объем
20%
Alibaba
$3,312 Объем
13%
xAI
$8,763 Объем
13%
Meta
$14,856 Объем
12%
Moonshot
$6,631 Объем
11%
Z.ai
$2,490 Объем
9%
ByteDance
$2,826 Объем
8%
DeepSeek
$20,531 Объем
8%
Amazon
$2,737 Объем
8%
Microsoft
$3,469 Объем
8%
Baidu
$1,901 Объем
7%
Meituan
$2,385 Объем
6%
Mistral
$9,437 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent AI leaderboard shifts show Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants leading composite benchmarks such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSYS Arena Elo ratings, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol family holds top spots on coding and reasoning tests like SWE-bench and GPQA. xAI's Grok 4.6 refresh in mid-August narrowed gaps on agentic tasks at lower cost. Competitive pressure stems from rapid post-training updates, with performance converging among frontier labs and Chinese open-weight models like Qwen and DeepSeek closing in on quality at fraction of the price. Key catalysts ahead include expected September releases from OpenAI and Anthropic, Google's next Gemini iteration, and Meta's Llama updates, all of which could realign model rankings before year-end through new capability demonstrations or benchmark gains.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Открытие рынка: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Объем
$119,071Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Recent AI leaderboard shifts show Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants leading composite benchmarks such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSYS Arena Elo ratings, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol family holds top spots on coding and reasoning tests like SWE-bench and GPQA. xAI's Grok 4.6 refresh in mid-August narrowed gaps on agentic tasks at lower cost. Competitive pressure stems from rapid post-training updates, with performance converging among frontier labs and Chinese open-weight models like Qwen and DeepSeek closing in on quality at fraction of the price. Key catalysts ahead include expected September releases from OpenAI and Anthropic, Google's next Gemini iteration, and Meta's Llama updates, all of which could realign model rankings before year-end through new capability demonstrations or benchmark gains.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Объем
$119,071Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent AI leaderboard shifts show Anthropic's Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5 variants leading composite benchmarks such as Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index and LMSYS Arena Elo ratings, while OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol family holds top spots on coding and reasoning tests like SWE-bench and GPQA. xAI's Grok 4.6 refresh in mid-August narrowed gaps on agentic tasks at lower cost. Competitive pressure stems from rapid post-training updates, with performance converging among frontier labs and Chinese open-weight models like Qwen and DeepSeek closing in on quality at fraction of the price. Key catalysts ahead include expected September releases from OpenAI and Anthropic, Google's next Gemini iteration, and Meta's Llama updates, all of which could realign model rankings before year-end through new capability demonstrations or benchmark gains.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы