Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently anchor the Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1500-1530 Elo as of mid-September 2026, driven by strong human preference gains in coding and reasoning tasks. OpenAI's recent GPT-6 Astra launch and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates have intensified competition, with incremental gains in agentic benchmarks and multimodal performance pressuring the frontier. Trader sentiment reflects the labs' historical release cadence—multiple frontier updates typically land in Q4—yet accounts for potential slippage in scaling returns or evaluation shifts. Key catalysts through year-end include further Claude iterations, OpenAI tool-use enhancements, and any major open-weight jumps from Qwen or Kimi that could push overall arena scores higher before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДостигнет ли какая-либо модель ИИ ___ Общего балла арены к 31 декабря?
Достигнет ли какая-либо модель ИИ ___ Общего балла арены к 31 декабря?
$187,230 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
↑ 1520
98%
↑ 1530
31%
↑ 1540
21%
↑ 1550
16%
↑ 1600
5%
↑ 1650
5%
↑ 1700
3%
$187,230 Объем
↑ 1520
$33,017 Объем
98%
↑ 1530
$15,126 Объем
31%
↑ 1540
$5,477 Объем
21%
↑ 1550
$53,229 Объем
16%
↑ 1600
$25,470 Объем
5%
↑ 1650
$9,216 Объем
5%
↑ 1700
$9,036 Объем
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently anchor the Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1500-1530 Elo as of mid-September 2026, driven by strong human preference gains in coding and reasoning tasks. OpenAI's recent GPT-6 Astra launch and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates have intensified competition, with incremental gains in agentic benchmarks and multimodal performance pressuring the frontier. Trader sentiment reflects the labs' historical release cadence—multiple frontier updates typically land in Q4—yet accounts for potential slippage in scaling returns or evaluation shifts. Key catalysts through year-end include further Claude iterations, OpenAI tool-use enhancements, and any major open-weight jumps from Qwen or Kimi that could push overall arena scores higher before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ET
Объем
$187,230Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently anchor the Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1500-1530 Elo as of mid-September 2026, driven by strong human preference gains in coding and reasoning tasks. OpenAI's recent GPT-6 Astra launch and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates have intensified competition, with incremental gains in agentic benchmarks and multimodal performance pressuring the frontier. Trader sentiment reflects the labs' historical release cadence—multiple frontier updates typically land in Q4—yet accounts for potential slippage in scaling returns or evaluation shifts. Key catalysts through year-end include further Claude iterations, OpenAI tool-use enhancements, and any major open-weight jumps from Qwen or Kimi that could push overall arena scores higher before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$187,230Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 23, 2026, 5:38 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants currently anchor the Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1500-1530 Elo as of mid-September 2026, driven by strong human preference gains in coding and reasoning tasks. OpenAI's recent GPT-6 Astra launch and Google's Gemini 3.8 Flash updates have intensified competition, with incremental gains in agentic benchmarks and multimodal performance pressuring the frontier. Trader sentiment reflects the labs' historical release cadence—multiple frontier updates typically land in Q4—yet accounts for potential slippage in scaling returns or evaluation shifts. Key catalysts through year-end include further Claude iterations, OpenAI tool-use enhancements, and any major open-weight jumps from Qwen or Kimi that could push overall arena scores higher before December 31.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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