Recent OpenAI releases, particularly the September 3, 2026 launch of GPT-6 Astra, have fueled discussion but not triggered an official AGI declaration meeting the market's criteria. President Greg Brockman described the model as potentially marking entry into the AGI era and noted personal belief in reaching that threshold, while Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang publicly stated AGI had arrived based on Astra's capabilities in agentic tasks, coding, and benchmarks. However, independent evaluations under standard harnesses show more modest results, such as 62.7% on ARC-AGI-3 versus OpenAI's adapted 99.9%, and the company's definition of highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work remains unmet in practice. Trader consensus for "No" at 72.5% implied probability reflects skepticism over qualified statements, benchmark discrepancies, and typical AI development timelines extending past 2026, despite accelerated internal roadmaps.