OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra release and associated executive commentary have not produced a formal company announcement that the large language model meets its charter definition of AGI—highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work—keeping the market-implied probability of such a declaration before 2027 at 27.5%. President Greg Brockman described the model in personal terms as potentially marking entry into the “AGI era,” while CEO Sam Altman previously projected an internal system he would label AGI by year-end 2026. Mixed benchmark results, including strong performance on OpenAI’s agent harnesses but lower scores on provider-neutral evaluations like ARC-AGI-3, plus prior safety pauses, sustain trader caution. Key catalysts ahead include further capability demonstrations or explicit statements ahead of the December 31, 2026 resolution date.