OpenAI named its next major frontier model Astra on August 1, 2026, highlighting internal results on advanced mathematics and theoretical computer science problems that align closely with Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) criteria. Recent internal evaluations flagged strong agentic coding and cybersecurity performance, prompting OpenAI to pause development activities and scale testing under its preparedness framework, which has delayed any public rollout. Current frontier models trail on HLE, with GPT-5 at 25.3% and Gemini 3 Pro at 38.3%, while Astra’s unreleased capabilities suggest it could shift the leaderboard if evaluated soon. Traders are watching for safety clearance timelines, competitive responses from labs like Anthropic and Google, and whether OpenAI prioritizes benchmark disclosure before broader release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоМодель Astra от OpenAI: дебют последнего экзамена человечества?
Модель Astra от OpenAI: дебют последнего экзамена человечества?
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
40%+
50%
50%+
50%
60%+
24%
$326 Объем
40%+
$175 Объем
50%
50%+
$90 Объем
50%
60%+
$61 Объем
24%
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI named its next major frontier model Astra on August 1, 2026, highlighting internal results on advanced mathematics and theoretical computer science problems that align closely with Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) criteria. Recent internal evaluations flagged strong agentic coding and cybersecurity performance, prompting OpenAI to pause development activities and scale testing under its preparedness framework, which has delayed any public rollout. Current frontier models trail on HLE, with GPT-5 at 25.3% and Gemini 3 Pro at 38.3%, while Astra’s unreleased capabilities suggest it could shift the leaderboard if evaluated soon. Traders are watching for safety clearance timelines, competitive responses from labs like Anthropic and Google, and whether OpenAI prioritizes benchmark disclosure before broader release.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Aug 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Объем
$326Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".OpenAI named its next major frontier model Astra on August 1, 2026, highlighting internal results on advanced mathematics and theoretical computer science problems that align closely with Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) criteria. Recent internal evaluations flagged strong agentic coding and cybersecurity performance, prompting OpenAI to pause development activities and scale testing under its preparedness framework, which has delayed any public rollout. Current frontier models trail on HLE, with GPT-5 at 25.3% and Gemini 3 Pro at 38.3%, while Astra’s unreleased capabilities suggest it could shift the leaderboard if evaluated soon. Traders are watching for safety clearance timelines, competitive responses from labs like Anthropic and Google, and whether OpenAI prioritizes benchmark disclosure before broader release.
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed “Astra,” describing an internal version of Astra as its “next major model.” You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI “Astra” model added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a model first appears on the site but is removed before 12:00 PM ET on the following calendar date, its appearance will not qualify as added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results.
A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The percentage displayed as “HLE Accuracy” for the model in its result card on the “AI Progress on Humanity’s Last Exam” chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market. This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model’s Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
If multiple qualifying models are added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results on the same calendar date (ET), the model with the highest HLE Accuracy will be used for resolution. Models added to the results on the calendar date following the initial qualifying model’s first appearance will not be considered.
A qualifying model must be newly added to the Humanity’s Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/. Whether the model was previously released, publicly accessible, in beta, or otherwise available before appearing on the site is irrelevant for this market.
The resolution source for this market is the official Humanity’s Last Exam website found at https://agi.safe.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which the qualifying model first appears on the site, this market will resolve based on the first subsequent instance at which the model’s HLE Accuracy becomes available on the site. If it remains unavailable through the end of the seventh day after the qualifying model first appears on the site or if no qualifying model is added by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$326Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 13, 2026, 5:54 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://agi.safe.ai/Resolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI named its next major frontier model Astra on August 1, 2026, highlighting internal results on advanced mathematics and theoretical computer science problems that align closely with Humanity’s Last Exam (HLE) criteria. Recent internal evaluations flagged strong agentic coding and cybersecurity performance, prompting OpenAI to pause development activities and scale testing under its preparedness framework, which has delayed any public rollout. Current frontier models trail on HLE, with GPT-5 at 25.3% and Gemini 3 Pro at 38.3%, while Astra’s unreleased capabilities suggest it could shift the leaderboard if evaluated soon. Traders are watching for safety clearance timelines, competitive responses from labs like Anthropic and Google, and whether OpenAI prioritizes benchmark disclosure before broader release.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСвязанные
Достигнет ли максимальный балл, набранный моделью OpenAI на Последнем Экзамене Человечества в 2026 году, 50% или выше?
95%
Да
Дебютирует ли модель Astra от OpenAI на лидерборде Arena с результатом не менее 1480?
77%
Да
Будет ли наивысший балл, набранный на Последнем экзамене человечества в 2026 году, равен 60% или выше?
53%
Да
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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