Elevated eurozone inflation, which climbed to 3.2% in May with core measures reaching 2.5%, driven by persistent energy price pressures from the Iran conflict, forms the primary catalyst behind the market-implied 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point ECB rate hike at the June 11 meeting. Recent hawkish communications from Governing Council members, including signals that the bank should act even amid potential de-escalation, have reinforced trader consensus for tightening from the current 2.00% deposit rate toward 2.25%. This positioning aligns with the ECB’s 2% inflation target and contrasts with the April hold, as incoming data showed upside risks intensifying. A sharp, sustained drop in energy costs or unexpectedly dovish forward guidance could still introduce modest uncertainty, though near-term resolution limits such scope.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Повышение на 25 б.п. 98.8%
No change 1.2%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$828,930 Объем
$828,930 Объем
11 июн. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
1%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
99%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 98.8%
No change 1.2%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$828,930 Объем
$828,930 Объем
11 июн. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
$111,059 Объем
<1%
25 bps decrease
$126,190 Объем
<1%
No change
$181,123 Объем
1%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$182,989 Объем
99%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$227,568 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Elevated eurozone inflation, which climbed to 3.2% in May with core measures reaching 2.5%, driven by persistent energy price pressures from the Iran conflict, forms the primary catalyst behind the market-implied 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point ECB rate hike at the June 11 meeting. Recent hawkish communications from Governing Council members, including signals that the bank should act even amid potential de-escalation, have reinforced trader consensus for tightening from the current 2.00% deposit rate toward 2.25%. This positioning aligns with the ECB’s 2% inflation target and contrasts with the April hold, as incoming data showed upside risks intensifying. A sharp, sustained drop in energy costs or unexpectedly dovish forward guidance could still introduce modest uncertainty, though near-term resolution limits such scope.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Объем
$828,930Дата окончания
11 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Elevated eurozone inflation, which climbed to 3.2% in May with core measures reaching 2.5%, driven by persistent energy price pressures from the Iran conflict, forms the primary catalyst behind the market-implied 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point ECB rate hike at the June 11 meeting. Recent hawkish communications from Governing Council members, including signals that the bank should act even amid potential de-escalation, have reinforced trader consensus for tightening from the current 2.00% deposit rate toward 2.25%. This positioning aligns with the ECB’s 2% inflation target and contrasts with the April hold, as incoming data showed upside risks intensifying. A sharp, sustained drop in energy costs or unexpectedly dovish forward guidance could still introduce modest uncertainty, though near-term resolution limits such scope.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Объем
$828,930Дата окончания
11 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated eurozone inflation, which climbed to 3.2% in May with core measures reaching 2.5%, driven by persistent energy price pressures from the Iran conflict, forms the primary catalyst behind the market-implied 98.9% probability of a 25 basis point ECB rate hike at the June 11 meeting. Recent hawkish communications from Governing Council members, including signals that the bank should act even amid potential de-escalation, have reinforced trader consensus for tightening from the current 2.00% deposit rate toward 2.25%. This positioning aligns with the ECB’s 2% inflation target and contrasts with the April hold, as incoming data showed upside risks intensifying. A sharp, sustained drop in energy costs or unexpectedly dovish forward guidance could still introduce modest uncertainty, though near-term resolution limits such scope.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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