The ECB's June 11 meeting has emerged as the primary driver behind the 98.3% market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate increase, reflecting persistent euro-area inflation pressures from energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict. May headline inflation reached 3.2%, with core measures accelerating to 2.5%, pushing policymakers to prioritize containing second-round effects over near-term growth concerns. Recent Governing Council communications and economist surveys confirm broad consensus for tightening from the current 2.00% deposit facility rate, consistent with forward-looking data rather than guarantees. A durable peace agreement or rapid energy price reversal could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear unlikely ahead of the decision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
Повышение на 25 б.п. 98.3%
No change 1.6%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$795,407 Объем
$795,407 Объем
11 июн. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
2%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
98%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
<1%
Повышение на 25 б.п. 98.3%
No change 1.6%
Повышение на 50+ б.п. <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$795,407 Объем
$795,407 Объем
11 июн. 2026 г.
50+ bps decrease
$110,059 Объем
<1%
25 bps decrease
$126,190 Объем
<1%
No change
$175,246 Объем
2%
Повышение на 25 б.п.
$179,411 Объем
98%
Повышение на 50+ б.п.
$204,501 Объем
<1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The ECB's June 11 meeting has emerged as the primary driver behind the 98.3% market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate increase, reflecting persistent euro-area inflation pressures from energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict. May headline inflation reached 3.2%, with core measures accelerating to 2.5%, pushing policymakers to prioritize containing second-round effects over near-term growth concerns. Recent Governing Council communications and economist surveys confirm broad consensus for tightening from the current 2.00% deposit facility rate, consistent with forward-looking data rather than guarantees. A durable peace agreement or rapid energy price reversal could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear unlikely ahead of the decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Открытие рынка: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Объем
$795,407Дата окончания
11 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The ECB's June 11 meeting has emerged as the primary driver behind the 98.3% market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate increase, reflecting persistent euro-area inflation pressures from energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict. May headline inflation reached 3.2%, with core measures accelerating to 2.5%, pushing policymakers to prioritize containing second-round effects over near-term growth concerns. Recent Governing Council communications and economist surveys confirm broad consensus for tightening from the current 2.00% deposit facility rate, consistent with forward-looking data rather than guarantees. A durable peace agreement or rapid energy price reversal could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear unlikely ahead of the decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Объем
$795,407Дата окончания
11 июн. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The ECB's June 11 meeting has emerged as the primary driver behind the 98.3% market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point rate increase, reflecting persistent euro-area inflation pressures from energy price spikes tied to the Iran conflict. May headline inflation reached 3.2%, with core measures accelerating to 2.5%, pushing policymakers to prioritize containing second-round effects over near-term growth concerns. Recent Governing Council communications and economist surveys confirm broad consensus for tightening from the current 2.00% deposit facility rate, consistent with forward-looking data rather than guarantees. A durable peace agreement or rapid energy price reversal could still alter the outcome, though such shifts appear unlikely ahead of the decision.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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