Elevated eurozone inflation, driven by Middle East conflict-related energy price spikes, has pushed the May 2026 HICP reading above 3% and lifted shorter-term inflation expectations, prompting traders to assign a 98.4% implied probability to a 25 basis point ECB deposit facility rate hike to 2.25% at the June 11 meeting. The April 30 decision to hold rates at 2.00% was accompanied by explicit signals that preemptive tightening would likely begin in June absent a rapid de-escalation, with resilient labor markets amplifying concerns over second-round effects. This market-implied path aligns with economist surveys and reflects skin-in-the-game consensus on the need to anchor expectations. A swift energy price reversal or significantly softer incoming data could still shift the outcome toward no change.