Trader consensus on Polymarket favors "No Prison Time" at 39.2% implied probability for Harvey Weinstein, driven by his history of successful appeals—including New York's top court overturning his 2020 23-year sentence—and ongoing uncertainties amid his frail health at age 73, marked by leukemia, heart surgery, and recent hospitalizations. The third New York retrial on a 2013 third-degree rape charge opened April 21 with prosecutors alleging Hollywood power abuse and defense claiming consensual relations, while a skeptical California appellate panel heard arguments last week to challenge his 16-year consecutive rape sentence from 2022. Pending sentencing on a 2025 New York sexual assault conviction adds volatility; acquittals or plea deals could credit six years served toward release, though consecutive terms position 20-30 years at 23.8% if appeals fail. Watch trial verdict and appeal rulings in coming weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоХарви Вайнштейн в тюрьме?
Харви Вайнштейн в тюрьме?
Без тюремного срока 39.2%
20-30 лет 23.8%
10–20 лет 14.2%
Более 30 лет 10.4%
$878,955 Объем
$878,955 Объем
Без тюремного срока
39%
Менее 5 лет
6%
5-10 лет
5%
10–20 лет
14%
20-30 лет
24%
Более 30 лет
10%
Без тюремного срока 39.2%
20-30 лет 23.8%
10–20 лет 14.2%
Более 30 лет 10.4%
$878,955 Объем
$878,955 Объем
Без тюремного срока
39%
Менее 5 лет
6%
5-10 лет
5%
10–20 лет
14%
20-30 лет
24%
Более 30 лет
10%
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors "No Prison Time" at 39.2% implied probability for Harvey Weinstein, driven by his history of successful appeals—including New York's top court overturning his 2020 23-year sentence—and ongoing uncertainties amid his frail health at age 73, marked by leukemia, heart surgery, and recent hospitalizations. The third New York retrial on a 2013 third-degree rape charge opened April 21 with prosecutors alleging Hollywood power abuse and defense claiming consensual relations, while a skeptical California appellate panel heard arguments last week to challenge his 16-year consecutive rape sentence from 2022. Pending sentencing on a 2025 New York sexual assault conviction adds volatility; acquittals or plea deals could credit six years served toward release, though consecutive terms position 20-30 years at 23.8% if appeals fail. Watch trial verdict and appeal rulings in coming weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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