Trader consensus remains tightly contested in the Harvey Weinstein prison time market, with <5 years, 10-20 years, and 30+ years hovering around 50% implied probabilities amid his ongoing third New York rape retrial for the 2013 Jessica Mann case, which opened April 21. Mann's emotional testimony on April 27—detailing alleged praise followed by assault—has intensified prosecution momentum, while defense highlights text messages suggesting consent. Key differentiators include his standing 16-year California rape conviction, facing a skeptical appeals panel last week; a prior New York sexual assault verdict awaiting up to 25 years sentencing; and over six years already served at age 74. A guilty verdict could push toward decades, but acquittal or successful appeals might cap effective time below five years, with trial resolution expected in weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоХарви Вайнштейн в тюрьме?
Харви Вайнштейн в тюрьме?
Менее 5 лет 51.5%
5-10 лет 3.0%
Без тюремного срока 2.5%
10–20 лет 0
$886,589 Объем
$886,589 Объем
31 дек. 2025 г.
Без тюремного срока
2%
Менее 5 лет
52%
5-10 лет
3%
10–20 лет
51%
20-30 лет
33%
Более 30 лет
47%
Менее 5 лет 51.5%
5-10 лет 3.0%
Без тюремного срока 2.5%
10–20 лет 0
$886,589 Объем
$886,589 Объем
31 дек. 2025 г.
Без тюремного срока
$324,237 Объем
2%
Менее 5 лет
$110,672 Объем
52%
5-10 лет
$64,236 Объем
3%
10–20 лет
$143,842 Объем
51%
20-30 лет
$183,095 Объем
33%
Более 30 лет
$60,506 Объем
47%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus remains tightly contested in the Harvey Weinstein prison time market, with <5 years, 10-20 years, and 30+ years hovering around 50% implied probabilities amid his ongoing third New York rape retrial for the 2013 Jessica Mann case, which opened April 21. Mann's emotional testimony on April 27—detailing alleged praise followed by assault—has intensified prosecution momentum, while defense highlights text messages suggesting consent. Key differentiators include his standing 16-year California rape conviction, facing a skeptical appeals panel last week; a prior New York sexual assault verdict awaiting up to 25 years sentencing; and over six years already served at age 74. A guilty verdict could push toward decades, but acquittal or successful appeals might cap effective time below five years, with trial resolution expected in weeks.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Объем
$886,589Дата окончания
31 дек. 2025 г.Открытие рынка
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus remains tightly contested in the Harvey Weinstein prison time market, with <5 years, 10-20 years, and 30+ years hovering around 50% implied probabilities amid his ongoing third New York rape retrial for the 2013 Jessica Mann case, which opened April 21. Mann's emotional testimony on April 27—detailing alleged praise followed by assault—has intensified prosecution momentum, while defense highlights text messages suggesting consent. Key differentiators include his standing 16-year California rape conviction, facing a skeptical appeals panel last week; a prior New York sexual assault verdict awaiting up to 25 years sentencing; and over six years already served at age 74. A guilty verdict could push toward decades, but acquittal or successful appeals might cap effective time below five years, with trial resolution expected in weeks.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$886,589Дата окончания
31 дек. 2025 г.Открытие рынка
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus remains tightly contested in the Harvey Weinstein prison time market, with <5 years, 10-20 years, and 30+ years hovering around 50% implied probabilities amid his ongoing third New York rape retrial for the 2013 Jessica Mann case, which opened April 21. Mann's emotional testimony on April 27—detailing alleged praise followed by assault—has intensified prosecution momentum, while defense highlights text messages suggesting consent. Key differentiators include his standing 16-year California rape conviction, facing a skeptical appeals panel last week; a prior New York sexual assault verdict awaiting up to 25 years sentencing; and over six years already served at age 74. A guilty verdict could push toward decades, but acquittal or successful appeals might cap effective time below five years, with trial resolution expected in weeks.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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