**National Weather Service forecasts for Houston on July 3 point to a high near 95°F amid ongoing above-normal warmth driven by an upper-level ridge and heat dome pattern over Texas.** Typical early-July insolation and Gulf moisture support strong daytime heating, with dewpoints in the mid-70s pushing heat indices well above 100°F, though scattered afternoon thunderstorms introduce modest uncertainty that could cap peaks slightly below model guidance. Historical normals for the date hover around 94°F, and current model consensus aligns closely with the market's leading 94-95°F bin at 45.5% implied probability. Limited tropical moisture or stronger convection would be required to shift outcomes meaningfully lower, while any suppression of clouds could push readings toward 96-97°F.