Short-range forecast models show Istanbul under stable high pressure with light northerly Etesian winds and minimal cloud cover through July 20, favoring daytime highs near the July climatological average of 28–30 °C. Subtle differences among 28–31 °C outcomes hinge on exact wind speed, sea-breeze timing from the Bosphorus and Marmara, and urban heat-island amplification in central districts versus coastal stations. Stronger meltemi gusts or brief marine-layer intrusions would cap maxima near 28 °C, while clearer skies and lighter winds could push readings to 31 °C. Recent regional warmth in 2025–26 provides a slightly elevated baseline, yet model spread remains wide enough that traders assign comparable probabilities across the narrow 28–31 °C band ahead of updated runs.