Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 17°C as Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's (MGM) latest hourly forecast—updated at 11:50 local time—showing peaks of 17°C from noon to 3 p.m. under clear skies, transitioning to 18°C briefly before cooling, with current airport-area observations hovering at 15-17°C amid light winds (10 km/h) and 50% humidity that cap warming. This aligns with a recent cool spell, including yesterday's 15°C maximum, and model convergence from ECMWF/GFS analogs indicating limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear conditions or a wind shift boosting afternoon temps to 18°C, though low sun angles and stable air masses make this unlikely; monitor MGM updates and NOAA Istanbul Airport (LTFM) readings for final resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on May 6?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 6?
17°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$41,501 Объем
$41,501 Объем
6 мая 2026 г.
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
Yes
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
17°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$41,501 Объем
$41,501 Объем
6 мая 2026 г.
11°C or below
$343 Объем
No
12°C
$534 Объем
No
13°C
$777 Объем
No
14°C
$1,467 Объем
No
15°C
$3,875 Объем
No
16°C
$4,761 Объем
No
17°C
$8,597 Объем
Yes
18°C
$5,850 Объем
No
19°C
$8,027 Объем
No
20°C
$3,459 Объем
No
21°C or higher
$3,812 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 17°C as Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's (MGM) latest hourly forecast—updated at 11:50 local time—showing peaks of 17°C from noon to 3 p.m. under clear skies, transitioning to 18°C briefly before cooling, with current airport-area observations hovering at 15-17°C amid light winds (10 km/h) and 50% humidity that cap warming. This aligns with a recent cool spell, including yesterday's 15°C maximum, and model convergence from ECMWF/GFS analogs indicating limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear conditions or a wind shift boosting afternoon temps to 18°C, though low sun angles and stable air masses make this unlikely; monitor MGM updates and NOAA Istanbul Airport (LTFM) readings for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: May 4, 2026, 12:23 PM ET
Объем
$41,501Дата окончания
6 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 12:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 17°C as Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's (MGM) latest hourly forecast—updated at 11:50 local time—showing peaks of 17°C from noon to 3 p.m. under clear skies, transitioning to 18°C briefly before cooling, with current airport-area observations hovering at 15-17°C amid light winds (10 km/h) and 50% humidity that cap warming. This aligns with a recent cool spell, including yesterday's 15°C maximum, and model convergence from ECMWF/GFS analogs indicating limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear conditions or a wind shift boosting afternoon temps to 18°C, though low sun angles and stable air masses make this unlikely; monitor MGM updates and NOAA Istanbul Airport (LTFM) readings for final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$41,501Дата окончания
6 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
May 4, 2026, 12:23 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to 17°C as Istanbul's highest temperature today, driven by the Turkish State Meteorological Service's (MGM) latest hourly forecast—updated at 11:50 local time—showing peaks of 17°C from noon to 3 p.m. under clear skies, transitioning to 18°C briefly before cooling, with current airport-area observations hovering at 15-17°C amid light winds (10 km/h) and 50% humidity that cap warming. This aligns with a recent cool spell, including yesterday's 15°C maximum, and model convergence from ECMWF/GFS analogs indicating limited solar heating potential. Realistic challenges include prolonged clear conditions or a wind shift boosting afternoon temps to 18°C, though low sun angles and stable air masses make this unlikely; monitor MGM updates and NOAA Istanbul Airport (LTFM) readings for final resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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