Recent forecasts for Jeddah on July 2, 2026, center on highs of 36–38°C under persistent sunny conditions and light northwesterly winds, aligning with the market’s tight distribution across 37–39°C outcomes. Primary drivers include the seasonal influence of the subtropical ridge promoting clear skies and strong solar heating, combined with Red Sea moisture that limits extreme inland-style peaks while sustaining high humidity. Short-range model runs show minor variability tied to afternoon sea-breeze timing and any thin high-cloud passages that could trim the daily maximum by 1–2°C. With resolution hinging on the single official maximum reading, traders weigh climatological July averages near 38°C against these subtle steering and insolation factors, keeping probabilities clustered rather than dominated by one threshold.