Recent Met Office and ECMWF model runs indicate a weak high-pressure ridge over southern England with light southerly flow, creating tight competition between 24–26°C outcomes for London’s July 22 maximum. Ensemble spreads remain wide due to uncertain cloud cover and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage, keeping probabilities for 25°C and 26°C nearly even at 24.5% and 27.5%. Historical July averages near 23°C provide baseline context, while traders weigh potential daytime heating under clearer spells against modest Atlantic moisture that could cap temperatures. Updated guidance expected within 24 hours will likely refine these closely matched market-implied odds.