Official observations from New York City reporting stations, including LaGuardia Airport, recorded a daily maximum temperature of 78–79°F on June 16, 2026, driving the market-implied probability for that bracket to 100%. This outcome aligns with mid-June climatological norms for the region, where typical highs range from the mid-70s to low-80s under partly cloudy skies and light winds that limited further warming. National Weather Service data confirm modest daytime heating without significant heat advection or urban heat island amplification pushing readings higher. The near-certain positioning reflects verified post-event measurements rather than forecasts, leaving little room for revision unless official station data undergo rare quality-control adjustments. Scenarios that could challenge resolution remain limited to discrepancies between primary stations or last-minute data corrections.