Recent model guidance shows a post-heatwave transition over western Europe, with an Atlantic ridge weakening and allowing cooler maritime air and increased instability to reach northern France by July 23. Ensemble spreads from ECMWF and GFS place daytime maxima near 25–27 °C, with small differences in cloud cover, timing of any showers, and boundary-layer mixing determining whether the peak reaches the upper or lower end of that range. Soil moisture from preceding storms and modest northerly flow further suppress extreme values, keeping probabilities tightly clustered around the 25–27 °C outcomes. Updated runs and morning soundings over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution.