Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 34.5% implied probability to a 24°C high in Tel Aviv on April 19, reflecting the latest Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) guidance and ensemble means from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 23–25°C during a transition from mid-week heat (30°C+ on April 17) to cooler conditions driven by an approaching low-pressure system. High uncertainty stems from model spread, with 23°C (23.5%) and 25°C (21.5%) close behind; key variables include the timing of northerly winds enhancing sea-breeze cooling, cloud cover reducing solar insolation, and residual warm air advection versus frontal passage. Extremes like 26°C+ (9.5%) hinge on stalled cooling and clear skies, while sub-22°C outcomes (<20% combined) require heavier precipitation or stronger onshore flow. New IMS updates and 00z/12z model runs today could sharpen resolution ahead of the event.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 19?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on April 19?
24°C 35%
23°C 24%
25°C 19%
22°C 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
19 апр. 2026 г.
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
5%
21°C
6%
22°C
15%
23°C
24%
24°C
35%
25°C
19%
26°C or higher
10%
24°C 35%
23°C 24%
25°C 19%
22°C 15%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
19 апр. 2026 г.
16°C or below
$375 Объем
<1%
17°C
$280 Объем
<1%
18°C
$239 Объем
1%
19°C
$245 Объем
1%
20°C
$126 Объем
5%
21°C
$117 Объем
6%
22°C
$228 Объем
15%
23°C
$73 Объем
24%
24°C
$130 Объем
35%
25°C
$85 Объем
19%
26°C or higher
$123 Объем
10%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 34.5% implied probability to a 24°C high in Tel Aviv on April 19, reflecting the latest Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) guidance and ensemble means from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 23–25°C during a transition from mid-week heat (30°C+ on April 17) to cooler conditions driven by an approaching low-pressure system. High uncertainty stems from model spread, with 23°C (23.5%) and 25°C (21.5%) close behind; key variables include the timing of northerly winds enhancing sea-breeze cooling, cloud cover reducing solar insolation, and residual warm air advection versus frontal passage. Extremes like 26°C+ (9.5%) hinge on stalled cooling and clear skies, while sub-22°C outcomes (<20% combined) require heavier precipitation or stronger onshore flow. New IMS updates and 00z/12z model runs today could sharpen resolution ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Объем
$1,565Дата окончания
19 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 34.5% implied probability to a 24°C high in Tel Aviv on April 19, reflecting the latest Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) guidance and ensemble means from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 23–25°C during a transition from mid-week heat (30°C+ on April 17) to cooler conditions driven by an approaching low-pressure system. High uncertainty stems from model spread, with 23°C (23.5%) and 25°C (21.5%) close behind; key variables include the timing of northerly winds enhancing sea-breeze cooling, cloud cover reducing solar insolation, and residual warm air advection versus frontal passage. Extremes like 26°C+ (9.5%) hinge on stalled cooling and clear skies, while sub-22°C outcomes (<20% combined) require heavier precipitation or stronger onshore flow. New IMS updates and 00z/12z model runs today could sharpen resolution ahead of the event.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 19 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$1,565Дата окончания
19 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 17, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 34.5% implied probability to a 24°C high in Tel Aviv on April 19, reflecting the latest Israel Meteorological Service (IMS) guidance and ensemble means from ECMWF and GFS models clustering around 23–25°C during a transition from mid-week heat (30°C+ on April 17) to cooler conditions driven by an approaching low-pressure system. High uncertainty stems from model spread, with 23°C (23.5%) and 25°C (21.5%) close behind; key variables include the timing of northerly winds enhancing sea-breeze cooling, cloud cover reducing solar insolation, and residual warm air advection versus frontal passage. Extremes like 26°C+ (9.5%) hinge on stalled cooling and clear skies, while sub-22°C outcomes (<20% combined) require heavier precipitation or stronger onshore flow. New IMS updates and 00z/12z model runs today could sharpen resolution ahead of the event.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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