Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 25?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 25?
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$109,028 Объем
$109,028 Объем
25 апр. 2026 г.
12°C or below
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
Yes
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C or higher
No
18°C 100.0%
12°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
$109,028 Объем
$109,028 Объем
25 апр. 2026 г.
12°C or below
$899 Объем
No
13°C
$1,429 Объем
No
14°C
$1,150 Объем
No
15°C
$7,823 Объем
No
16°C
$20,300 Объем
No
17°C
$12,896 Объем
No
18°C
$16,693 Объем
Yes
19°C
$14,560 Объем
No
20°C
$18,684 Объем
No
21°C
$7,959 Объем
No
22°C or higher
$6,637 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 23, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
Объем
$109,028Дата окончания
25 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 23, 2026, 12:11 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$109,028Дата окончания
25 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 23, 2026, 12:11 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in 18°C as Tokyo's highest temperature on April 25 at 100% implied probability, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) surface observations from the official Tokyo station showing a midday peak of 18°C under partly cloudy skies. This outcome reflects reduced solar insolation from cloud cover and influence from a cooler air mass, well below the seasonal daily normal maximum of 21.7°C. Diurnal cooling has since set in with evening winds, minimizing upside risk. A realistic challenge would require an improbable late-afternoon heat burst exceeding forecasts, but current model consensus and declining temperatures make this highly unlikely before market resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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