Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on April 30?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on April 30?
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$136,768 Объем
$136,768 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
11°C or below
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
No
15°C
No
16°C
Yes
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C or higher
No
16°C 100.0%
11°C or below <1%
12°C <1%
13°C <1%
$136,768 Объем
$136,768 Объем
30 апр. 2026 г.
11°C or below
$2,284 Объем
No
12°C
$1,918 Объем
No
13°C
$14,289 Объем
No
14°C
$29,558 Объем
No
15°C
$15,355 Объем
No
16°C
$16,848 Объем
Yes
17°C
$16,899 Объем
No
18°C
$14,025 Объем
No
19°C
$9,406 Объем
No
20°C
$7,826 Объем
No
21°C or higher
$8,360 Объем
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Открытие рынка: Apr 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ET
Объем
$136,768Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Объем
$136,768Дата окончания
30 апр. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Apr 28, 2026, 3:38 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Предложенный исход: No
Спор отсутствует
Окончательный исход: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 16°C on April 30, 2026, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) forecasts and global models projecting a daytime maximum of 16°C under overcast conditions and a passing cool air mass. Observations so far align with this, showing morning lows around 11°C and limited solar heating due to persistent cloud cover, well below the April climatological average high of 22°C. This positioning reflects strong alignment across ensemble forecast models with minimal divergence. Realistic challenges would require sudden clearing skies for enhanced insolation or urban heat island effects pushing readings higher, though diurnal patterns and current atmospheric stability make this unlikely; final official measurement from Tokyo's central station will resolve the market by day's end.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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