**Trader consensus has coalesced around an 18°C high in Warsaw today because real-time observations from the Chopin Airport station, the market’s official resolution source, show afternoon temperatures peaking at that level under mostly sunny conditions with moderate westerly winds.** National weather services and forecast models aligned on a daily maximum near 18°C (64–65°F), consistent with seasonal June averages of 21–22°C but tempered by a cooler air mass and light cloud cover that prevented further warming. With the peak already recorded in late afternoon and evening readings falling, the probability of exceeding 18°C or falling short has diminished sharply. Only an unexpected late-day spike from unforecasted insolation or a station measurement revision could alter the outcome at this stage.