Recent short-term forecasts from Metservice and international models indicate a daily high of 10–11°C for Wellington on August 1, driven by persistent southerly airflow and lingering cloud cover that limits daytime warming in the region’s mid-winter regime. NIWA’s seasonal outlook for June–August assigns the highest probability to near-average or below-average temperatures across central New Zealand, consistent with typical August climatology of 12°C highs at Wellington. Ensemble guidance shows limited scope for stronger northerly advection or clearer skies that would push readings to 12°C or higher, while colder outliers remain unlikely without a stronger high-pressure system. Updated model runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine the precise maximum ahead of market resolution.