Iran’s supreme leadership underwent a historic transition after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering the constitutional interim council and an expedited Assembly of Experts vote. Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as the new supreme leader in early March amid wartime conditions, IRGC influence, and external threats of further targeting. By August 2026, reports describe a collective arrangement involving President Pezeshkian, parliamentary and judicial heads, and security figures, with questions persisting over Mojtaba’s public role and capacity. Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-Iran talks on a draft understanding, and regional ceasefire dynamics remain the primary variables that could affect regime stability or prompt additional shifts within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено$24,197,536 Объем
31 авг. 2026 г.
31 августа
<1%
30 сентября
4%
31 октября
7%
30 ноября
11%
31 декабря
17%
30 июня 2027 года
25%
$24,197,536 Объем
31 августа
$1,489,089 Объем
<1%
30 сентября
$506,026 Объем
4%
31 октября
$26,246 Объем
7%
30 ноября
$22,994 Объем
11%
31 декабря
$4,212,621 Объем
17%
30 июня 2027 года
$252,838 Объем
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s supreme leadership underwent a historic transition after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering the constitutional interim council and an expedited Assembly of Experts vote. Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as the new supreme leader in early March amid wartime conditions, IRGC influence, and external threats of further targeting. By August 2026, reports describe a collective arrangement involving President Pezeshkian, parliamentary and judicial heads, and security figures, with questions persisting over Mojtaba’s public role and capacity. Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-Iran talks on a draft understanding, and regional ceasefire dynamics remain the primary variables that could affect regime stability or prompt additional shifts within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Открытие рынка: Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ET
Объем
$24,197,536Дата окончания
1 июл. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s supreme leadership underwent a historic transition after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering the constitutional interim council and an expedited Assembly of Experts vote. Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as the new supreme leader in early March amid wartime conditions, IRGC influence, and external threats of further targeting. By August 2026, reports describe a collective arrangement involving President Pezeshkian, parliamentary and judicial heads, and security figures, with questions persisting over Mojtaba’s public role and capacity. Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-Iran talks on a draft understanding, and regional ceasefire dynamics remain the primary variables that could affect regime stability or prompt additional shifts within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Объем
$24,197,536Дата окончания
1 июл. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 21, 2026, 11:05 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s supreme leadership underwent a historic transition after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed in U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, triggering the constitutional interim council and an expedited Assembly of Experts vote. Mojtaba Khamenei was selected as the new supreme leader in early March amid wartime conditions, IRGC influence, and external threats of further targeting. By August 2026, reports describe a collective arrangement involving President Pezeshkian, parliamentary and judicial heads, and security figures, with questions persisting over Mojtaba’s public role and capacity. Ongoing diplomatic efforts, including U.S.-Iran talks on a draft understanding, and regional ceasefire dynamics remain the primary variables that could affect regime stability or prompt additional shifts within the resolution window.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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